Volume 9, Number 5—May 2003
Research
Pandemic Influenza and Healthcare Demand in the Netherlands: Scenario Analysis
Marianne L.L. van Genugten*
, Marie-Louise A. Heijnen*, and Johannes C. Jager*
, Marie-Louise A. Heijnen*, and Johannes C. Jager*Table 2
Input variables used to calculate potential impact of influenza pandemic in terms of healthcare outcomes and the effect of various interventions, the Netherlands
| Input variable | Age groups (y) | Sources | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <19 | 20–64 | >65 | ||
| Population | 3.8×106 | 9.7×106 | 2.1×106 | Statistics Netherlands |
| Population at high risk | 0.09×106 | 0.6×106 | 0.7×106 | (38–40) |
| Age distribution of influenza cases | 34.3 | 60.4 | 5.2 | As in a regular epidemic in general practice (41)a |
| Current vaccination degree | (42,43) | |||
| Population at low risk | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.20 | |
| Population at high risk | 0.65 | 0.75 | 0.80 | |
| Efficacy influenza vaccine | 80% | 80% | 80% | (13–15) |
| Invasive pneumococcal infections | (12,16,17) | |||
| Related hospitalizations | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Efficacy vaccine | 64% | 64% | 64% | |
| Hospitalization rate (per 100,000) for influenza | As in a regular epidemic (44)a | |||
| Population at low risk | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2 | |
| Population at high risk | 28 | 28 | 10 | |
| Hospitalization rate (per 100,000) for influenza-related pneumonia | As in a regular epidemic (44)a | |||
| Population at low risk | 0.3 | 0.3 | 38 | |
| Population at high risk | 72 | 72 | 175 | |
| Death rate (per 100,000) | As in a regular epidemic (45)a | |||
| Low risk population | 0.6 | 0.6 | 26.2 | |
| High risk population | 29.6 | 29.6 | 84.9 | |
aAssuming that during a regular epidemic 10% of the population becomes ill.
