Volume 13, Number 1—January 2007
Blood Transfusion and Spread of Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease
|Age-specific mortality rates||U-shaped, with minimum at age 10.||Federal Statistical Office of Germany|
|Donor recruitment||Donors ages 18–67 y. Maximum recruitment rate at age 18, lower plateau ages 25–50; further decrease until age 67.||Age-distribution of first-time donors at DRK Blood Service and age structure in population|
|Proportion of donors||3% of population.||DRK Blood Service West|
|Duration as active donor||Donors ages 18–40 y, mean duration as active donor 10–14 y, decreases linearly to 0.||Age distribution of active donors at DRK Blood Service West, by age at first donation|
|Risk of receiving transfusions||Bimodal, with peaks for newborns and aged persons. Multiple transfusions possible.||Data collected from 4,867 patients March 2003, University Hospital Essen, Germany|
|Transfusion-associated risk for death||Increases according to a sigmoid function, ≈17% at birth to ≈48% in old age. For those with transfusion-associated risk for death, life expectancy is ≈2.5 years at birth and decreases to ≈0.5 y in old age.||Follow-up of ≈3,000 transfusion recipients for ≈7.5 y in Newcastle, UK (4)|
|Alimentary infection||Constant over an initial period of 10 y.||Arbitrary assumption|
|Incubation period†||Gamma distributed with mean 16 y, SD 4 y. Sensitivity analysis with mean = 50 y and same coefficient of variation.||Models fitted to the UK incidence of vCJD (5,6)|
|Donor exclusion||Either 0 or 95% of those with transfusion history.||Arbitrary assumption|
*DRK, German Red Cross; SD, standard deviation; vCJD, variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.
†Time between infection and death, i.e., duration of infection.