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Volume 21, Number 3—March 2015

Research

Evaluation of the Benefits and Risks of Introducing Ebola Community Care Centers, Sierra Leone

Adam J. KucharskiComments to Author , Anton Camacho, Francesco Checchi, Ron Waldman, Rebecca F. Grais, Jean-Clement Cabrol, Sylvie Briand, Marc Baguelin, Stefan Flasche, Sebastian Funk, and W. John Edmunds
Author affiliations: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK (A.J. Kucharski, A. Camacho, M. Baguelin, S. Flasche, S. Funk, W.J. Edmunds); Save the Children, London (F. Checchi); Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA (R. Waldman); Epicentre, Paris, France (R.F. Grais); Médecins sans Frontières, Geneva, Switzerland (J.-C. Cabrol); World Health Organization, Geneva (S. Briand)

Main Article

Figure 2

Model fits and forecasts used to evaluate the benefits and risks of introducing Ebola community care centers into Western Area, Sierra Leone. A) Reported cases over time. Black points show reported incidence data. B) No. patients in ETC beds. Blue lines to the left of the dashed vertical divides show the median estimate; blues line to the right of the dashed vertical divides show forecast with no change in number of ETC beds; green lines show forecast if 500 ETC beds are introduced on December 1

Figure 2. Model fits and forecasts used to evaluate the benefits and risks of introducing Ebola community care centers into Western Area, Sierra Leone. A) Reported cases over time. Black points show reported incidence data. B) No. patients in ETC beds. Blue lines to the left of the dashed vertical divides show the median estimate; blues line to the right of the dashed vertical divides show forecast with no change in number of ETC beds; green lines show forecast if 500 ETC beds are introduced on December 15, 2014. Shaded areas represent 95% credible interval, which reflects uncertainty about reporting and model parameters; darker shading indicates overlap between 2 forecasts. Estimates were scaled depending on the number of daily situation reports issued by the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health and Sanitation each week (see https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_BzCqSK1DZaYnRoeWtHOTU2TVk/). ETC, Ebola treatment center.

Main Article

Page created: February 18, 2015
Page updated: February 18, 2015
Page reviewed: February 18, 2015
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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