Emerging Infectious Disease ISSN: 1080-6059

Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza

Robert J. Glass*

, Laura M. Glass†, Walter E. Beyeler*, and H. Jason Min*

Author affiliations: *Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA; †Albuquerque Public High School, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

Main Article

Figure 3

Functional behavior of IR with time. Although infectivity of an asymptomatic person is constant with time (IR 0.25), infectivity of a symptomatic person changes from infectious presymptomatic (IR 0.25) to early infectious symptomatic (IR 1.0) to late symptomatic (IR 0.375). A symptomatic person with mean state periods as denoted in Figure 2 is shown in gray (asymptomatic with dashed line). Because state periods are different for each person (given by exponential distributions) and half of the in

Figure 3. Functional behavior of I_R with time. Although infectivity of an asymptomatic person is constant with time (I_R 0.25), infectivity of a symptomatic person changes from infectious presymptomatic (I_R 0.25) to early infectious symptomatic (I_R 1.0) to late symptomatic (I_R 0.375). A symptomatic person with mean state periods as denoted in Figure 2 is shown in gray (asymptomatic with dashed line). Because state periods are different for each person (given by exponential distributions) and half of the infected persons are asymptomatic, the average population scale I_R in time is smoothed as shown in blue. Both disease state periods and I_R values were chosen to honor the clinically derived natural history of influenza (12–14), selected viral shedding data shown as open red squares (15), and the model of Ferguson et al. (10,11).

Main Article

Top of Page

The opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.