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Volume 10, Number 6—June 2004
Letter

SARS Epidemiology Modeling

Ying-Hen Hsieh*Comments to Author , Hsiao-Ling Chang†, and Jen-Yu Lee*
Author affiliations: *National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan; †Department of Health, Taipei, Taiwan

Main Article

Table

Predicted inflection point and dates when inflection occurs based on truncated data of cumulative number of reported severe acute respiratory syndrome cases in Hong Kong

Data period (ending date) tma Dateb Kc rd αe
April 9, 2003
 16.62
 April 2, 2003
 1,107
 0.20
 0.74
April 16, 2003
 -40.79
 February 7, 2003
 1,907
 0.07
 52.11
April 30, 2003
 -13.52
 March 3, 2003
 1,819
 0.07
 10.21
May 14, 2003
 6.80
 March 23, 2003
 1,749
 0.09
 2.84
May 28, 2003
 17.31
 April 2, 2003
 1,733
 0.10
 1.38
June 12, 2003 2.63 March 19, 2003 1,751 0.09 3.77

atm is the inflection point of the model.
bDate refers to the date when inflection occurs.
cK is the predicted maximum number of cumulative cases.
dr is the intrinsic growth rate.
eα measures the extent of deviation of S-shaped dynamics from the classic logistic growth curve.

Main Article

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