Volume 11, Number 9—September 2005
Research
Potential Impact of Antiviral Drug Use during Influenza Pandemic
Raymond Gani*
, Helen Hughes*, Douglas Fleming†, Thomas Griffin*, Jolyon Medlock*, and Steve Leach*
, Helen Hughes*, Douglas Fleming†, Thomas Griffin*, Jolyon Medlock*, and Steve Leach*
Table 3
Parameters required for scenario specific simulations
| Baseline | 1957 | 1968 | 1918 1st wave | 1918 2nd wave | 1918 3rd wave | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall hospitalization rate per 100,000 population | 138* | 188† | 144† | – | – | – |
| Overall clinical attack rate, % | 25† | 31† | 21‡ | 5§ | 9%§ | 4§ |
| Overall serologic attack rate, % | 50‡ | 67‡ | 65§ | 79§ | 61§ | 69§ |
| % immune at start of wave | 0¶ | 0¶ | 15‡ | 0¶ | 0¶ | 0¶ |
| R0 | 1.39‡ | 1.65‡ | 2.2‡ | 2.00† | 1.55‡ | 1.70‡ |
| Case-fatality rate, % | – | – | – | 0.70† | 3.25† | 2.70† |
*Derived from model simulations.
†Reported values.
‡Calculated directly from data.
§Calculated by fitting the model to data.
¶Assumed values.
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