Volume 12, Number 2—February 2006
Research
Free-grazing Ducks and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, Thailand
Marius Gilbert*
, Prasit Chaitaweesub†, Tippawon Parakamawongsa†, Sith Premashthira†, Thanawat Tiensin†‡, Wantanee Kalpravidh§, Hans Wagner§, and Jan Slingenbergh§¶
, Prasit Chaitaweesub†, Tippawon Parakamawongsa†, Sith Premashthira†, Thanawat Tiensin†‡, Wantanee Kalpravidh§, Hans Wagner§, and Jan Slingenbergh§¶
Table 2
Parameters of autologistic regression models of highly pathogenic avian influenza presence or absence as a function of selected poultry and other environmental variables
| Model | Variable* | Parameter | SE | Wald statistic | p value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thailand, all outbreaks | |||||
| Art | 37.03 | 1.69 | 482.5 | <0.001 | |
| FgDu | 2.47 × 10-5 | 3.67 × 10-6 | 45.3 | <0.001 | |
| NaCh | 1.63 × 10-5 | 4.18 × 10-6 | 15.1 | <0.001 | |
| Alt | –3.60 × 10-3 | 1.00× 10-3 | 12.9 | <0.001 | |
| Co | 1.12 × 10-4 | 3.21 × 10-5 | 12.1 | <0.001 | |
| Hpop | 1.03 × 10-5 | 3.10 × 10-6 | 10.9 | <0.001 | |
| Alt2 | 2.40 × 10-6 | 1.01 × 10-6 | 5.7 | 0.017 | |
| Intercept | –2.93 | 0.16 | 317.9 | <0.001 | |
| Thailand, outbreaks in chicken | |||||
| Art | 44.49 | 2.33 | 363.2 | <0.001 | |
| FgDu | 1.76 × 10-5 | 3.25 × 10-6 | 29.5 | <0.001 | |
| NaCh | 1.62 × 10-5 | 4.23 × 10-6 | 14.7 | <0.001 | |
| Alt | –3.91 × 10-3 | 1.03 × 10-3 | 14.6 | <0.001 | |
| Alt2 | 2.73 × 10-6 | 9.96 × 10-7 | 7.5 | 0.006 | |
| Co | 7.55 × 10-5 | 2.98 × 10-5 | 6.4 | 0.011 | |
| Hpop | 7.85 ×10-6 | 3.50 × 10-6 | 5.0 | 0.025 | |
| Intercept | –2.92 | 0.17 | 302.9 | <0.001 | |
| Thailand, outbreaks in ducks | |||||
| Art | 41.60 | 2.87 | 209.9 | <0.001 | |
| FgDu | 2.94 × 10-5 | 3.65 × 10-6 | 64.9 | <0.001 | |
| Alt | –1.15 × 10-2 | 2.16 × 10-3 | 28.4 | <0.001 | |
| Alt2 | 7.63 × 10-6 | 1.83 × 10-6 | 17.4 | <0.001 | |
| Price10K | 9.24 × 10-1 | 2.39 × 10-1 | 14.9 | <0.001 | |
| Co | 4.78 × 10-5 | 1.66 × 10-5 | 8.2 | 0.004 | |
| Hpop | 1.22 × 10-5 | 4.65 × 10-6 | 6.9 | 0.009 | |
| MeLaDu | 5.96 × 10-6 | 2.66 × 10-6 | 5.0 | 0.025 | |
| Intercept | –3.33 | 0.31 | 112.2 | <0.001 | |
| Suphanburi Province, all outbreaks | |||||
| Price5K | 3.70 | 0.621 | 35.6 | <0.001 | |
| FgDu | 9.46 × 10-5 | 2.03 × 10-5 | 21.7 | <0.001 | |
| MeLaDu | 7.47 × 10-5 | 2.52 × 10-5 | 8.8 | 0.003 | |
| NaCh | 2.09 × 10-4 | 8.27 × 10-5 | 6.4 | 0.012 | |
| Intercept | –4.89 | 0.511 | 91.6 | <0.001 | |
| Suphanburi Province, outbreaks in chickens | |||||
| Price5K | 4.64 | 1.135 | 16.7 | <0.001 | |
| NaCh | 3.01 × 10-4 | 1.00 × 10-4 | 9.0 | 0.003 | |
| MeLaDu | 7.00 × 10-5 | 2.60 × 10-5 | 7.2 | 0.007 | |
| FgDu | 4.54 × 10-5 | 1.81 × 10-5 | 6.3 | 0.012 | |
| Intercept | –6.74 | 0.960 | 49.3 | <0.001 | |
| Suphanburi Province, outbreaks in ducks | |||||
| Price5K | 3.76 | 0.742 | 25.7 | <0.001 | |
| FgDu | 8.67 × 10-5 | 1.87 × 10-5 | 21.4 | <0.001 | |
| MeLaDu | 7.16 × 10-5 | 2.39 × 10-5 | 9.0 | 0.003 | |
| Intercept | –5.16 | 0.604 | 73.1 | <0.001 | |
*SE, standard error; Art, autoregressive term. For descriptions and abbreviations of other variables, see Table 1.
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