Volume 16, Number 3—March 2010
School Closure and Mitigation of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong
|Parameter†||Posterior mean (SD)||95% CI|
|Mi, daily number of effective seeds in age class i, I = 1,2,3||<13 y: 0.1 (0.1)||0–0.04|
|13–19 y: 0.4 (0.1)||0.2–0.6|
|>19 y: 0.2 (0.2)||0–0.6|
|Basic reproductive number||Before Jun 11: 1.71 (0.04)||1.63–1.78|
|Relative susceptibility of persons <20 y of age||2.64 (0.08)||2.48–2.78|
|Percentage reduction in intra-age-group transmission given by school closures||70% (3%)||64%–75%|
|t1, the date at which reporting rates began to decline||Jun 18 (1.2 d)||Jun 17–Jun 21|
|t2, the date at which reporting rates stopped declining||Jun 29 (0.3 d)||Jun 29–Jun 30|
|r2, the reporting rate after t2||5.2% (1.1%)||3.5%–7.7%|
*CI, confidence interval.
†Model assumes a linear decline in reporting rates from 100% to r2 between times t1 and t2.
Page created: December 14, 2010
Page updated: December 14, 2010
Page reviewed: December 14, 2010
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