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Volume 17, Number 8—August 2011
Research

Early Warning System for West Nile Virus Risk Areas, California, USA

Ryan M. Carney1Comments to Author , Sean C. Ahearn, Alan McConchie2, Carol A. Glaser, Cynthia Jean, Chris Barker, Bborie Park, Kerry Padgett, Erin Parker, Ervic Aquino, and Vicki L. Kramer
Author affiliations: Author affiliations: California Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA (R.M. Carney, C. Glaser, C. Jean, K. Padgett, E. Parker, E. Aquino); City University of New York, New York, New York, USA (S.C. Ahearn, A. McConchie); University of California, Davis, California, USA (C. Barker, B. Park); California Department of Public Health, Sacramento, California, USA (V. Kramer)

Main Article

Table 2

Comparison of number of cells that contained reported human West Nile virus cases and number of cells identified as high risk, California, USA, 2005*

High risk Contained case
 Total
Yes No
Yes
 269
 6,891
 7,160
No 64 66,543 66,607
Total 333† 73,434 73,767

*True positive (yes/yes) designates cell identified by Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time (DYCAST) model as high risk before or on the date of onset of illness of earliest case located within cell. If cell was identified as high risk after date of onset of illness, or cell was never identified as high risk and a case occurred within it, it was designated false negative (yes/no).
†Number of cells that contained cases is less than the number of cases (354) because of 14 cells that contained 2 predicted cases, 3 cells that contained 3 predicted cases, and 1 cell that contained 2 missed cases.

Main Article

1Current affiliation: Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA.

2Current affiliation: University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

Page created: August 15, 2011
Page updated: August 15, 2011
Page reviewed: August 15, 2011
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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