Volume 19, Number 1—January 2013
Research
Novel Framework for Assessing Epidemiologic Effects of Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics
Carrie Reed
, Matthew Biggerstaff, Lyn Finelli, Lisa M. Koonin, Denise Beauvais, Amra Uzicanin, Andrew Plummer, Joe Bresee, Stephen C. Redd, and Daniel B. Jernigan
, Matthew Biggerstaff, Lyn Finelli, Lisa M. Koonin, Denise Beauvais, Amra Uzicanin, Andrew Plummer, Joe Bresee, Stephen C. Redd, and Daniel B. Jernigan
Table 1
Scaled measures of transmissibility and clinical severity for the initial assessment of pandemic influenza effects
| Parameter no. and description | Scale |
|
|---|---|---|
| Low-moderate | Moderate-high | |
| Transmissibility | ||
| 1. Secondary attack rate, household, % | <20 | >20 |
| 2. Attack rate, school or university, % | <30 | >30 |
| 3. Attack rate, workplace or community, % | <20 | >20 |
| 4. R0: basic reproductive no. | 1.0–1.7 | >1.8 |
| 5. Underlying population immunity | Some underlying population immunity present | No underlying population immunity present |
| 6. Emergency department or other outpatient visits for influenza-like illness, % | <10 | ≥10 |
| 7. Virologic characterization | Genetic markers for transmissibility absent | Genetic markers for transmissibility present |
| 8. Animal models—transmission studies |
Less efficient or similar to seasonal influenza |
More efficient than seasonal influenza |
| Clinical severity | ||
| 1. Upper boundary of case-fatality ratio, % | <1 | >1 |
| 2. Upper boundary of case-hospitalization ratio, % | <10 | >10 |
| 3. Ratio, deaths: hospitalizations, % | <10 | >10 |
| 4. Virologic characterization | Genetic markers for virulence absent | Genetic markers for virulence present |
| 5. Animal models | Less virulent or similar to seasonal influenza | More virulent than seasonal influenza |
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