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Volume 19, Number 1—January 2013


Novel Framework for Assessing Epidemiologic Effects of Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics

Carrie ReedComments to Author , Matthew Biggerstaff, Lyn Finelli, Lisa M. Koonin, Denise Beauvais, Amra Uzicanin, Andrew Plummer, Joe Bresee, Stephen C. Redd, and Daniel B. Jernigan

Author affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Main Article

Table 1

Scaled measures of transmissibility and clinical severity for the initial assessment of pandemic influenza effects

Parameter no. and description Scale
Low-moderate Moderate-high
1. Secondary attack rate, household, % <20 >20
2. Attack rate, school or university, % <30 >30
3. Attack rate, workplace or community, % <20 >20
4. R0: basic reproductive no. 1.0–1.7 >1.8
5. Underlying population immunity Some underlying population immunity present No underlying population immunity present
6. Emergency department or other outpatient visits for influenza-like illness, % <10 ≥10
7. Virologic characterization Genetic markers for transmissibility absent Genetic markers for transmissibility present
8. Animal models—transmission studies
Less efficient or similar to seasonal influenza
More efficient than seasonal influenza
Clinical severity
1. Upper boundary of case-fatality ratio, % <1 >1
2. Upper boundary of case-hospitalization ratio, % <10 >10
3. Ratio, deaths: hospitalizations, % <10 >10
4. Virologic characterization Genetic markers for virulence absent Genetic markers for virulence present
5. Animal models Less virulent or similar to seasonal influenza More virulent than seasonal influenza

Main Article