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Volume 22, Number 10—October 2016

Estimation of Severe Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Cases in the Middle East, 2012–2016

Justin J. O’HaganComments to Author , Cristina Carias, Jessica M. Rudd, Huong T. Pham, Yonat Haber, Nicki Pesik, Martin S. Cetron, Manoj Gambhir, Susan I. Gerber, and David L. Swerdlow
Author affiliations: IHRC Inc., Atlanta, Georgia, USA (J.J. O’Hagan. C. Carias); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta (J.J. O’Hagan, C. Carias, J.M. Rudd, H.T. Pham, Y. Haber, N. Pesik, M.S. Cetron, M. Gambhir, S.I. Gerber, D.L. Swerdlow); Imperial College London, London, UK (M. Gambhir); Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (M. Gambhir)

Main Article

Table 2

Estimated cumulative incidence of severe Middle East respiratory syndrome cases in Middle Eastern source countries calculated on the basis of illnesses among travelers and traveler LOS, September 2012–January 2016*

Estimated no. cases (95% CI)
Traveler data –2 Days LOS –1 Day LOS Average LOS† +1 Day LOS +2 Days LOS
Visitors from high-income OECD countries 5,463
(2,171–11,071) 4,086
(1,623–8,280) 3,263
(1,297–6,613) 2,716
(1,079–5,504) 2,326
All non–Middle Eastern visitors 2,043
(1,061–3,499) 1,683
(874–2,883) 1,431
(743–2,452) 1,245
(647–2,132) 1,102 
(572 – 1,887)

*LOS, length of stay; OECD, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
†The average length of stay of travelers from OECD countries in the 4 source countries (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates) was estimated to be 5.0 d, and the average length of stay of travelers from all non–Middle Eastern countries in the 4 source countries was estimated to be 6.7 d (Technical Appendix). Only the emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai were included in United Arab Emirates calculations due to a lack of traveler data on the other 5 emirates; no cases have been reported from these other emirates.

Main Article

Page created: September 19, 2016
Page updated: September 19, 2016
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