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Volume 23, Number 6—June 2017

Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics

Hsin-Chan Huang1Comments to Author , Ozgur M. Araz, David P. Morton, Gregory P. Johnson, Paul Damien, Bruce Clements, and Lauren Ancel Meyers
Author affiliations: The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA (H.-C. Huang, G.P. Johnson, P. Damien, L.A. Meyers); University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA (O.M. Araz); University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska, USA (O.M. Araz); Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA (D.P. Morton); Department of State Health Services, Austin (B. Clements); Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (L.A. Meyers)

Main Article

Table 1

Parameters for estimating peak-week ventilator demand in mild, moderate, and severe influenza pandemics, Texas, USA*

Parameter Mild (2009-like) Moderate (1957- and 1968-like) Severe (1918-like) Source
Hospitalization scaling over mild 1 3.14 36 (2,21)
Proportion of hospitalized ILI patients requiring ICU care 0.2 0.25 0.25 (2,19,21,22,23)
Proportion of ICU patients requiring ventilation 0.5 0.5 0.5 (2,21,22)
Proportion of ventilated patients requiring 2 weeks of ventilation 0.4 0.4 0.4 (22)
Region-to-region correlation for peak-week demand 0.7 0.7 0.7 Estimated

*ICU, intensive care unit; ILI, influenza-like illness.

Main Article

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1Current affiliation: Precima, LoyaltyOne US, Inc., Chicago, IL, USA.

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