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Volume 24, Number 2—February 2018
Synopsis

Ecologic Features of Plague Outbreak Areas, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2004–2014

Aaron Aruna AbediComments to Author , Jean-Christophe Shako, Jean Gaudart, Bertrand Sudre, Benoit Kebela Ilunga, Stomy Karhemere Bi Shamamba, Georges Diatta, Bernard Davoust, Jean-Jacques Muyembe Tamfum, Renaud Piarroux, and Martine Piarroux
Author affiliations: Ministry of Health, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (A.A. Abedi, B.K. Ilunga); Plague Reference Laboratory, Bunia, Democratic Republic of the Congo (J.-C. Shako); Aix Marseille University, INSERM, IRD, SESSTIM, Marseille, France (J. Gaudart); UMR 6249 Chrono-environment CNRS/INRA/UFC, Franche-Comté University, Besançon, France (B. Sudre); National Institute of Biomedical Research, Kinshasa (S.K.B. Shamamba, J.-J.M. Tamfum); Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, INSERM, URMITE, Dakar, Senegal (G. Diatta); Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, INSERM, URMITE, Marseille (B. Davoust); Pierre and Marie Curie University, INSERM, IPLESP, Paris, France (R. Piarroux, M. Piarroux)

Main Article

Table 1

Results of univariate analysis of environmental variables of bubonic plague, Orientale Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2004–2014*

Variable Estimate SE t value p value
Ecosystem†
Tropical −0.06816 0.02595 −2.627 0.001
Dry tropical −0.02004 0.004374 −4.582 <0.001
Tropical mountain
 0.01751
 0.003110
 5.629
 <0.001
Elevation, m, mean
 0.004743
 0.001066
 4.449
 <0.001
MODIS‡
Water −1.769 0.309 −5.726 <0.001
Evergreen broadleaf forest −0.01278 0.007316 −1.748 0.086
Mixed forest −0.4954 0.3251 −1.524 0.132
Closed shrublands 47.808 8.429 5.672 <0.001
Savannas −2.0318 0.4889 −4.156 <0.001
Permanent wetlands −0.50728 0.06268 −8.094 <0.001
Croplands 0.6011 0.1004 5.988 <0.001
Urban and built-up
 −7.968
 1.916
 −4.159
 <0.001
Rain accumulation, mm, TRMM3B43§
Mean 0.008287 0.001643 5.044 <0.001
SD −1.113 0.268 −4.150 <0.001

*Environmental variables with p<0.2 were kept for multivariate analysis. Negative estimates represent variables protective against plague; positive estimates represent variables increasing plague risk.
†Ecoclimatic zones defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (http://www.fao.org/ag/AGAInfo/programmes/documents/livatl2/africaezmaps.htm). These ecosystems are built incorporating repeated measures of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, temperature, rainfall, length of growing period, and elevation.
‡Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/dataset_discovery/modis/modis_products_table/mcd12q1).
§Tropical Rainfall Measure Mission 3B43 version 7. (http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/precipitation/documentation/TRMM_README/TRMM_3B43_readme.shtml).

Main Article

Page created: January 17, 2018
Page updated: January 17, 2018
Page reviewed: January 17, 2018
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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