Volume 25, Number 9—September 2019
Research Letter
Worldwide Reduction in MERS Cases and Deaths since 2016
Christl A. Donnelly, Mamun R. Malik, Amgad Elkholy, Simon Cauchemez, and Maria D. Van Kerkhove
Table
Estimated Middle East respiratory syndrome cases and deaths averted because of reduced human-to-human transmission and camel-to-human transmission*
| Year | Estimated cases and deaths averted because of reduced human-to-human transmission† |
Estimated cases and deaths averted because of reduced
camel-to-human and human-to-human transmission |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases averted‡ | 2-sided p value | Deaths averted |
Cases averted‡ | 2-sided p value | Deaths averted |
||||
| Assuming 20% CFR‡ | Assuming 35.5% CFR‡ | Assuming 20% CFR‡ | Assuming 35.5% CFR‡ | ||||||
| 2016 | 154 (0–495) | 0.2714 | 31 (0–99) | 55 (0–176) | 507 (189–967) | <0.0001 | 101 (38–193) | 180 (67–343) | |
| 2017 | 96 (0–419) | 0.5810 | 19 (0–84) | 34 (0–149) | 507 (189–967) | <0.0001 | 101 (38–193) | 180 (67–343) | |
| 2018§ |
80 (0–338) |
0.4316 |
16 (0–68) |
29 (0–120) |
451 (191–855) |
<0.0001 |
90 (38–171) |
160 (68–304) |
|
| 2016–2018§ | 330 (0–819) | 0.0896 | 66 (0–164) | 117 (0–291) | 1,465 (895–2165) | <0.0001 | 293 (179–433) | 520 (318–769) | |
*Values are estimated no. (95% range) except as indicated. CFR, case-fatality ratio.
†Conditional on reported community-acquired cases.
‡The 95% intervals reported are the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulations. When cases averted were not statistically significant, we truncated the lower bound of the 95% CI to 0 cases averted.
§Through September 2018.
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Page updated: August 21, 2019
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