Volume 25, Number 9—September 2019
Research Letter
Worldwide Reduction in MERS Cases and Deaths since 2016
Table
Estimated Middle East respiratory syndrome cases and deaths averted because of reduced human-to-human transmission and camel-to-human transmission*
Year | Estimated cases and deaths averted because of reduced human-to-human transmission† |
Estimated cases and deaths averted because of reduced
camel-to-human and human-to-human transmission |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cases averted‡ | 2-sided p value | Deaths averted |
Cases averted‡ | 2-sided p value | Deaths averted |
||||
Assuming 20% CFR‡ | Assuming 35.5% CFR‡ | Assuming 20% CFR‡ | Assuming 35.5% CFR‡ | ||||||
2016 | 154 (0–495) | 0.2714 | 31 (0–99) | 55 (0–176) | 507 (189–967) | <0.0001 | 101 (38–193) | 180 (67–343) | |
2017 | 96 (0–419) | 0.5810 | 19 (0–84) | 34 (0–149) | 507 (189–967) | <0.0001 | 101 (38–193) | 180 (67–343) | |
2018§ |
80 (0–338) |
0.4316 |
16 (0–68) |
29 (0–120) |
451 (191–855) |
<0.0001 |
90 (38–171) |
160 (68–304) |
|
2016–2018§ | 330 (0–819) | 0.0896 | 66 (0–164) | 117 (0–291) | 1,465 (895–2165) | <0.0001 | 293 (179–433) | 520 (318–769) |
*Values are estimated no. (95% range) except as indicated. CFR, case-fatality ratio.
†Conditional on reported community-acquired cases.
‡The 95% intervals reported are the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulations. When cases averted were not statistically significant, we truncated the lower bound of the 95% CI to 0 cases averted.
§Through September 2018.