Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020
Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality
|Location||Cumulative deaths†||Cumulative confirmed cases†||Crude CFR, %||Adjusted deaths‡||Adjusted cumulative confirmed cases‡||Adjusted CFR, % (95% CI)§|
|China, excluding Hubei Province#||113||13,099||0.86||104||12,907||0.81 (0.67–0.98)|
|82 countries, territories, and areas**||27||2,285||1.18||15||354||4.24 (2.58–6.87)|
|*CFR, case-fatality risk; COVID-19, coronavirus disease.
†Calculated by using data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by the World Health Organization on March 5, 2020 (1).
‡Calculated by using cumulative confirmed cases as of February 21, 2020.
§Calculated using OpenEpi v3 (http://www.openepi.com) by using the Score (Wilson) method.
¶Includes Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.
#We excluded Hubei Province because COVID-19 appears to have originated in this province and cases might have been missed because of shortages of appropriate diagnostic tests or health system overload.
**Includes 82 countries, territories, and areas outside of China and reporting cases on March 5, 2020; excludes areas with >500 cases (i.e., Italy, Iran, and South Korea) because of the possibility of uncontrolled spread and missed diagnoses in these localities.
- World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report—45, 5 Mar 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 6]. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200305-sitrep-45-covid-19.pdf
- Cowling BJ, Leung GM. Epidemiological research priorities for public health control of the ongoing global novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. Euro Surveill. 2020;25: Epub ahead of print.
- Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Leung GM, Hedley AJ, Fraser C, Riley S, et al. Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. Lancet. 2003;361:1761–6.
- Yang X, Yu Y, Xu J, Shu H, Xia J, Liu H, et al. Clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study. Lancet Respir Med. 2020;
S2213-2600(20)30079-5; Epub ahead of print.
- World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report—32, 21 Feb 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 6]. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200221-sitrep-32-covid-19.pdf
- Linton NM, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, Hayashi K, Akhmetzhanov AR, Jung SM, et al. Incubation period and other epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: a statistical analysis of publicly available case data. J Clin Med. 2020;9:538.
- National Institute of Infectious Diseases. Japan. Field briefing: Diamond Princess COVID-19 cases, 19 February 2020 [cited 2020 Feb 29]. https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9407-covid-dp-fe-01.html
- The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team. The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19)—China, 2020. China CDC Weekly 2020 [cited 2020 Feb 29]. http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51
Page created: May 19, 2020
Page updated: May 19, 2020
Page reviewed: May 19, 2020
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