Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020
Research Letter
Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality
Table
Crude and adjusted estimates of case-fatality risk for COVID-19 in 4 populations*
Location | Cumulative deaths† | Cumulative confirmed cases† | Crude CFR, % | Adjusted deaths‡ | Adjusted cumulative confirmed cases‡ | Adjusted CFR, % (95% CI)§ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
China¶ | 3,015 | 80,565 | 3.74 | 2,627 | 75,569 | 3.48 (3.35–3.61) |
China, excluding Hubei Province# | 113 | 13,099 | 0.86 | 104 | 12,907 | 0.81 (0.67–0.98) |
82 countries, territories, and areas** | 27 | 2,285 | 1.18 | 15 | 354 | 4.24 (2.58–6.87) |
Cruise ship |
6 |
706 |
0.85 |
4 |
634 |
0.63 (0.25–1.61) |
*CFR, case-fatality risk; COVID-19, coronavirus disease.
†Calculated by using data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by the World Health Organization on March 5, 2020 (1).
‡Calculated by using cumulative confirmed cases as of February 21, 2020.
§Calculated using OpenEpi v3 (http://www.openepi.com) by using the Score (Wilson) method.
¶Includes Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.
#We excluded Hubei Province because COVID-19 appears to have originated in this province and cases might have been missed because of shortages of appropriate diagnostic tests or health system overload.
**Includes 82 countries, territories, and areas outside of China and reporting cases on March 5, 2020; excludes areas with >500 cases (i.e., Italy, Iran, and South Korea) because of the possibility of uncontrolled spread and missed diagnoses in these localities. |
References
- World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report—45, 5 Mar 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 6]. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200305-sitrep-45-covid-19.pdf
- World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report—32, 21 Feb 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 6]. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200221-sitrep-32-covid-19.pdf
- National Institute of Infectious Diseases. Japan. Field briefing: Diamond Princess COVID-19 cases, 19 February 2020 [cited 2020 Feb 29]. https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9407-covid-dp-fe-01.html
- The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team. The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19)—China, 2020. China CDC Weekly 2020 [cited 2020 Feb 29]. http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51
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Page updated: May 19, 2020
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