Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020
Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality
|Location||Cumulative deaths†||Cumulative confirmed cases†||Crude CFR, %||Adjusted deaths‡||Adjusted cumulative confirmed cases‡||Adjusted CFR, % (95% CI)§|
|China, excluding Hubei Province#||113||13,099||0.86||104||12,907||0.81 (0.67–0.98)|
|82 countries, territories, and areas**||27||2,285||1.18||15||354||4.24 (2.58–6.87)|
|*CFR, case-fatality risk; COVID-19, coronavirus disease.
†Calculated by using data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by the World Health Organization on March 5, 2020 (1).
‡Calculated by using cumulative confirmed cases as of February 21, 2020.
§Calculated using OpenEpi v3 (http://www.openepi.com) by using the Score (Wilson) method.
¶Includes Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.
#We excluded Hubei Province because COVID-19 appears to have originated in this province and cases might have been missed because of shortages of appropriate diagnostic tests or health system overload.
**Includes 82 countries, territories, and areas outside of China and reporting cases on March 5, 2020; excludes areas with >500 cases (i.e., Italy, Iran, and South Korea) because of the possibility of uncontrolled spread and missed diagnoses in these localities.
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