Epidemiology and Clinical Course of First Wave Coronavirus Disease Cases, Faroe Islands
Marnar F. Kristiansen
, Bodil H. Heimustovu, Sanna á Borg, Tróndur Høgnason Mohr, Hannes Gislason, Lars Fodgaard Møller, Debes H. Christiansen, Bjarni á Steig, Maria Skaalum Petersen, Marin Strøm, and Shahin Gaini
Author affiliations: National Hospital of the Faroe Islands, Tórshavn, Faroe Islands (M.F. Kristiansen, B.H. Heimustovu, S. á Borg, T.H. Mohr, B. á Steig, S. Gaini); Ministry of Health COVID-19 Task Force, Tórshavn (M.F. Kristiansen, B.H. Heimustovu, B. á Steig); University of the Faroe Islands, Tórshavn (M.F. Kristiansen, H. Gislason, M.S. Petersen, M. Strøm, S. Gaini); Office of the Chief Medical Officer, Tórshavn (L.F. Møller); Faroese Food and Veterinary Authority, Tórshavn (D.H. Christiansen); The Faroese Hospital System, Tórshavn (M.S. Petersen); Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark (M. Strøm); Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark (S. Gaini); University of Southern Denmark, Odense (S. Gaini)
Figure 4. Time-varying reproduction number (Rt) and observed reproduction number (Robs) for coronavirus disease by date, Faroe Islands. Green shading indicates 95% CI for Rt. We noted a rapid decrease in Rt, from 4.88 on March 16. From March 24 onward, Rt and Robs were <1 until April 22 when the last case was confirmed in the Faroe Islands. After May 4, Rt rose >1 due to increasing uncertainty in the estimate. We calculated Rt by using the EpiEstim package in R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, https://www.r-project.org) and local data on serial interval and imported cases. Robs was determined by information from the transmission chains. We made 2 adjustments to compare Robs to Rt: we moved Robs 5 days forward (equal to the serial interval) because Robs is measured on the infector; and we set Rt on the infected case. When the infector was unknown, we set transmission as 5 days earlier, equal to the serial interval, to avoid underestimating Robs by censoring those cases. R0, reproduction number; Robs, observed reproduction number; Rt, time-varying reproduction number.
Page created: January 07, 2021
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