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Volume 27, Number 5—May 2021
Research Letter

Risk for International Importations of Variant SARS-CoV-2 Originating in the United Kingdom

Zhanwei Du1, Lin Wang1, Bingyi Yang, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Tim K. Tsang, Songwei Shan, Peng Wu, Eric H.Y. Lau, Benjamin J. Cowling, and Lauren Ancel MeyersComments to Author 
Author affiliations: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China (Z. Du, B. Yang, S.T. Ali, T.K. Tsang, S. Shan, P. Wu, E.H.Y. Lau, B.J. Cowling); Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong (Z. Du, S.T. Ali, S. Shan, P. Wu, E.H.Y. Lau, B.J. Cowling); University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK (L. Wang); The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA (L.A. Meyers); Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (L.A. Meyers)

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Figure

Estimated risks for introduction of the 501Y variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from the United Kingdom to 15 other countries before December 7, 2020. A) Probability that >1 person infected with this SARS-CoV-2 variant arrived at the target country from the United Kingdom by the date indicated on the x-axis, based on Facebook mobility data (https://dataforgood.fb.com). The dotted gray vertical line indicates October 28, 2020, the date when the introduction risk for the United States surpassed 50%; line colors correspond to the relative risk for importations as of that date. B) Estimated daily prevalence of the 501Y variant of SARS-CoV-2 in 11 countries between September 22 and December 7, 2020, assuming that the variant is , which means 50% more transmissible than the 501N variant (11). Points and bands indicate means and SDs based on 100 simulations. C) Probability of >1 variant importation by October 28, 2020. Grey indicates countries/regions where mobility data were not available.

Figure. Estimated risks for introduction of the 501Y variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from the United Kingdom to 15 other countries before December 7, 2020. A) Probability that >1 person infected with this SARS-CoV-2 variant arrived at the target country from the United Kingdom by the date indicated on the x-axis, based on Facebook mobility data (https://dataforgood.fb.com). The dotted gray vertical line indicates October 28, 2020, the date when the introduction risk for the United States surpassed 50%; line colors correspond to the relative risk for importations as of that date. B) Estimated daily prevalence of the 501Y variant of SARS-CoV-2 in 11 countries between September 22 and December 7, 2020, assuming that the variant is , which means 50% more transmissible than the 501N variant (11). Points and bands indicate means and SDs based on 100 simulations. C) Probability of >1 variant importation by October 28, 2020. Grey indicates countries/regions where mobility data were not available.

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1These first authors contributed equally to this article.

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