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Volume 27, Number 7—July 2021

Ethnically Disparate Disease Progression and Outcomes among Acute Rheumatic Fever Patients in New Zealand, 1989–2015

Jane OliverComments to Author , Oliver Robertson, Jane Zhang, Brooke L. Marsters, Dianne Sika-Paotonu, Susan Jack, Julie Bennett, Deborah A. Williamson, Nigel Wilson, Nevil Pierse, and Michael G. Baker
Author affiliations: Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (J. Oliver); University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand (J. Oliver, O. Robertson, J. Zhang, B.L. Marsters, S. Jack, J. Bennett, N. Pierse, M.G. Baker); University of Melbourne, Melbourne (J. Oliver, D.A. Williamson); University of Otago, Wellington (D. Sika-Paotonu); Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington (D. Sika-Paotonu); Southern District Health Board, Dunedin (S. Jack); Starship Child Health, Auckland (N. Wilson)

Main Article

Table 2

Factors influencing the likelihood of disease progression to recurrent ARF, hospitalization for RHD, or circulatory death after hospitalization for initial ARF, New Zealand, 1989–2015*

Factor Patient progression from initial ARF
Cox-proportional model, HR (95% CI) Generalized linear model, OR (95% CI)
Age group, y
<5 0.59 (0.24–1.4) 1.17 (0.45–3.01)
5–9 0.88 (0.46–1.7) 1.43 (0.75–3.01)
10–14 1.02 (0.54–1.9) 1.54 (0.82–3.23)
15–19 1.02 (0.50–2.1) 1.30 (0.62–2.92)
F 1.01 (0.81–1.25) 1.02 (0.80–1.28)
Māori 1.89 (1.24–2.88) 1.68 (1.10–2.67)
Pacific Islander 2.35 (1.54–3.60) 2.12 (1.37–3.39)
NZDep06 quintile
1 Referent Referent
2 0.56 (0.25–1.23) 0.47 (0.19–1.09)
3 0.88 (0.47–1.66) 0.77 (0.39–1.58)
4 0.70 (0.38–1.27) 0.61 (0.32–1.21)
0.88 (0.51–1.50)
0.76 (0.42–1.43)
ARF diagnostic code denoting carditis
Yes 1.94 (1.55–2.43) 2.00 (1.57–2.54)
No Referent Referent

*Boldface indicates statistical significance. ARF, acute rheumatic fever; HR, hazard ratio; NZDep06 index, 2006 New Zealand Deprivation Index; OR, odds ratio; RHD, rheumatic heart disease.

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Page created: May 15, 2021
Page updated: June 16, 2021
Page reviewed: June 16, 2021
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