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Volume 27, Number 7—July 2021
Research Letter

Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination Timing and Risk Prioritization on Mortality Rates, United States

Xutong Wang, Zhanwei Du, Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Remy F. Pasco, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Jason S. McLellan, and Lauren Ancel MeyersComments to Author 
Author affiliations: The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA (X. Wang, Z. Du, K.E. Johnson, R.F. Pasco, S.J. Fox, J.S. McLellan, L.A. Meyers); The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China (Z. Du); Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong (Z. Du); Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (M. Lachmann, L.A. Meyers)

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Figure

Projected COVID-19 deaths and deaths averted in the Austin–Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area (Austin, TX, USA) under various vaccine rollout scenarios for November 8, 2020–September 17, 2021. A) COVID-19 deaths averted after January 15, 2021, under combinations of vaccine uptake of 50% (left) or 90% (right); type of protection, either infection blocking (reducing susceptibility) or symptom blocking (reducing severity); rollout dates, either January 15 (circles) or February 15 (triangles); and risk prioritization, either no priority (gray), prioritize all adults >65 years of age (light blue), adults with high-risk underlying conditions (medium blue), or the combination of the two (dark blue), or a 10-phase risk-ordered strategy (green) that sequentially vaccinates >65 y high risk, 50–64 y high risk, >65 y low risk, 18–49 y high risk, 50–64 y low risk, 18–49 y low risk, 0–4 y high risk, 5–17 y high risk, 0–4 y low risk, 5–17 y low risk. Points and whiskers indicate the median and 95% CI across 200 paired stochastic simulations. B) Weekly incident COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population, assuming intermediate (70%) uptake (6) without vaccine (black) or under a 10-phase risk-based rollout of a 95% efficacious infection-blocking vaccine, starting either January 15 (orange) or February 15 (purple). The brown line assumes that only first doses are administered starting January 15. Solid lines and shading indicate the median and 95% CI across 200 stochastic simulations. COVID-19, coronavirus disease.

Figure. Projected COVID-19 deaths and deaths averted in the Austin–Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area (Austin, TX, USA) under various vaccine rollout scenarios for November 8, 2020–September 17, 2021. A) COVID-19 deaths averted after January 15, 2021, under combinations of vaccine uptake of 50% (left) or 90% (right); type of protection, either infection blocking (reducing susceptibility) or symptom blocking (reducing severity); rollout dates, either January 15 (circles) or February 15 (triangles); and risk prioritization, either no priority (gray), prioritize all adults >65 years of age (light blue), adults with high-risk underlying conditions (medium blue), or the combination of the two (dark blue), or a 10-phase risk-ordered strategy (green) that sequentially vaccinates >65 y high risk, 50–64 y high risk, >65 y low risk, 18–49 y high risk, 50–64 y low risk, 18–49 y low risk, 0–4 y high risk, 5–17 y high risk, 0–4 y low risk, 5–17 y low risk. Points and whiskers indicate the median and 95% CI across 200 paired stochastic simulations. B) Weekly incident COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population, assuming intermediate (70%) uptake (6) without vaccine (black) or under a 10-phase risk-based rollout of a 95% efficacious infection-blocking vaccine, starting either January 15 (orange) or February 15 (purple). The brown line assumes that only first doses are administered starting January 15. Solid lines and shading indicate the median and 95% CI across 200 stochastic simulations. COVID-19, coronavirus disease.

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Page updated: June 17, 2021
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The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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