Volume 28, Number 4—April 2022
Synopsis
Citywide Integrated Aedes aegypti Mosquito Surveillance as Early Warning System for Arbovirus Transmission, Brazil
Table
Akaike information criteria results ranking the most parsimonious a priori models (descending order) that predict the incidence of dengue cases based on surveys of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil*
Scenarios | Index | ΔAICc | wAICc |
---|---|---|---|
After 4 weeks | Mosquitoes per inhabitant | 0.0 | 0.6079 |
Adult density | 0.9 | 0.3908 | |
Trap positivity |
12.3 |
0.0013 |
|
After 2 weeks | Adult density | 406.0 | <0.001 |
Trap positivity | 407.8 | <0.001 | |
Mosquitoes per inhabitant | 407.8 | <0.001 | |
Breteau |
426.4 |
<0.001 |
|
After 6 weeks | Mosquitoes per inhabitant | 1,151.2 | <0.001 |
Adult density | 1,156.3 | <0.001 | |
Trap positivity |
1,177.7 |
<0.001 |
|
During the same week | Adult density | 2,146.8 | <0.001 |
Mosquitoes per inhabitant | 2,148.0 | <0.001 | |
Trap positivity | 2,151.3 | <0.001 | |
House | 2,159.7 | <0.001 | |
Breteau |
2,161.1 |
<0.001 |
|
After 8 weeks | Adult density | 2,286.3 | <0.001 |
Mosquitoes per inhabitant | 2,288.5 | <0.001 | |
Trap positivity | 2,297.6 | <0.001 |
*Based on p≤0.05 in a generalized linear mixed model. Each model was denoted as a specific scenario, from the same week to 8 weeks after entomologic surveys, and index. House and Breteau indices are based on larval surveys of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes; mosquito per inhabitant, trap positivity, and adult density indices are based on adult trapping. ΔAICc, difference in corrected Akaiks information criteria; wAICc, weights of corrected Akaike information criteria.