Volume 29, Number 2—February 2023
Research
Age-Stratified Model to Assess Health Outcomes of COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies, Ghana
Table 3
Scenario analysis of outcomes in the total population under various vaccination scenarios using the second matrix method for the initial strain, Ghana
Vaccine prioritization by age group, y |
Scenario, % infections |
|||||
500,000 vaccinated in 3 mo |
500,000 vaccinated in 6 mo |
1 million vaccinated in 3 mo |
1 million vaccinated in 6 mo |
2 million vaccinated in 3 mo |
2 million vaccinated in 6 mo |
|
Symptomatic infections at peak | ||||||
Only ≥65 | 7.02 | 7.10 | 6.92 | 7.02 | 6.82 | 6.92 |
25–64 | 6.96 | 7.07 | 6.75 | 6.96 | 6.35 | 6.75 |
<25 | 6.99 | 7.09 | 6.79 | 6.99 | 6.42 | 6.79 |
<65 | 6.97 | 7.08 | 6.76 | 6.97 | 6.35 | 6.76 |
Same rate across age groups |
6.98 |
7.08 |
6.76 |
6.98 |
6.35 |
6.76 |
Cumulative infections | ||||||
Only ≥65 | 177.71 | 179.61 | 175.36 | 177.71 | 173.19 | 175.36 |
25–64 | 178.22 | 180.28 | 174.26 | 178.22 | 166.42 | 174.26 |
<25 | 178.62 | 180.48 | 174.95 | 178.62 | 167.74 | 174.95 |
<65 | 178.39 | 180.48 | 174.42 | 178.39 | 166.69 | 174.42 |
Same rate across age groups |
178.30 |
180.33 |
174.25 |
178.30 |
166.13 |
174.25 |
Deaths | ||||||
Only ≥65 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.18 |
25–64 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.21 |
<25 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
<65 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.21 |
Same rate across age groups | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.21 |