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Volume 29, Number 2—February 2023
Research

Age-Stratified Model to Assess Health Outcomes of COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies, Ghana

Sylvia K. Ofori, Jessica S. Schwind, Kelly L. Sullivan, Gerardo Chowell, Benjamin J. Cowling, and Isaac Chun-Hai FungComments to Author 
Author affiliations: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA (S.K. Ofori); Georgia Southern University Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Statesboro, Georgia, USA (S.K. Ofori, K.L. Sullivan, I.C.-H. Fung); Georgia Southern University Institute for Health Logistics and Analytics, Statesboro (J.S. Schwind); Georgia State University School of Public Health, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (G. Chowell); WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, The University of Hong Kong School of Public Health, Pokfulam, Hong Kong (B.J. Cowling)

Main Article

Table 3

Scenario analysis of outcomes in the total population under various vaccination scenarios using the second matrix method for the initial strain, Ghana

Vaccine prioritization by age group, y
 Scenario, % infections
500,000 vaccinated in 3 mo
 500,000 vaccinated in 6 mo
 1 million vaccinated in 3 mo
 1 million vaccinated in 6 mo
 2 million vaccinated in 3 mo
 2 million vaccinated in 6 mo
Symptomatic infections at peak
Only ≥65 7.02 7.10 6.92 7.02 6.82 6.92
25–64 6.96 7.07 6.75 6.96 6.35 6.75
<25 6.99 7.09 6.79 6.99 6.42 6.79
<65 6.97 7.08 6.76 6.97 6.35 6.76
Same rate across age groups
 6.98
 7.08
 6.76
 6.98
 6.35
 6.76
Cumulative infections
Only ≥65 177.71 179.61 175.36 177.71 173.19 175.36
25–64 178.22 180.28 174.26 178.22 166.42 174.26
<25 178.62 180.48 174.95 178.62 167.74 174.95
<65 178.39 180.48 174.42 178.39 166.69 174.42
Same rate across age groups
 178.30
 180.33
 174.25
 178.30
 166.13
 174.25
Deaths
Only ≥65 0.19 0.20 0.18 0.19 0.17 0.18
25–64 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.19 0.21
<25 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21
<65 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.20 0.21
Same rate across age groups 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.21

Main Article

Page created: December 06, 2022
Page updated: January 21, 2023
Page reviewed: January 21, 2023
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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