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Volume 29, Number 7—July 2023
Dispatch

Estimates of Serial Interval and Reproduction Number of Sudan Virus, Uganda, August–November 2022

Valentina Marziano, Giorgio Guzzetta, Ira Longini, and Stefano MerlerComments to Author 
Author affiliations: Bruno Kessler Foundation, Center for Health Emergencies, Trento, Italy (V. Marziano, G. Guzzetta, S. Merler); University of Florida, Colleges of Public Health and Health Professions and Medicine, Gainesville, Florida, USA (I. Longini)

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Figure 1

Epidemic curves and reproduction numbers for SUDV outbreaks in Mubende, Kassanda, and Kampala districts, Uganda, August–November 2022. A–C) Number of confirmed and probable cases by date of symptom onset in the 3 considered districts (comprising 95% of cases reported in the whole country, as of November 2, 2022) (2): Mubende (A), Kassanda (B), and Kampala (C). D–F). Estimates of the net reproduction number over time in the 3 districts: Mubende (D), Kassanda (E), and Kampala (F). Estimated from the corresponding epidemic curves by date of symptom onset were computed using the serial interval distributions from the 2000–2001 outbreak (5) (red) and the 2022 outbreak (6) (blue). Shaded areas represent 95% CIs of estimates. We assumed that the first case of the epidemic curve in each district was imported and that all the others were locally transmitted. SUDV, Sudan virus.

Figure 1. Epidemic curves and reproduction numbers for SUDV outbreaks in Mubende, Kassanda, and Kampala districts, Uganda, August–November 2022. A–C) Number of confirmed and probable cases by date of symptom onset in the 3 considered districts (comprising 95% of cases reported in the whole country, as of November 2, 2022) (2): Mubende (A), Kassanda (B), and Kampala (C). D–F). Estimates of the net reproduction number over time in the 3 districts: Mubende (D), Kassanda (E), and Kampala (F). Estimated from the corresponding epidemic curves by date of symptom onset were computed using the serial interval distributions from the 2000–2001 outbreak (5) (red) and the 2022 outbreak (6) (blue). Shaded areas represent 95% CIs of estimates. We assumed that the first case of the epidemic curve in each district was imported and that all the others were locally transmitted. SUDV, Sudan virus.

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