Volume 29, Number 9—September 2023
Research
Global Estimate of Human Brucellosis Incidence
Christopher G. Laine, Valen E. Johnson, H. Morgan Scott, and Angela M. Arenas-Gamboa
Table
Estimated annual incidence of human brucellosis worldwide determined by using 3 statistical models*
| Region | Estimated human cases |
2.5% Quantile | 25% Quantile | Median | 75% Quantile | 97.5% Quantile | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Mean (SD) | ||||||
| Weighted average interpolation | |||||||
| World | 1,621,468 | ||||||
| Asia | 1,103,122 | ||||||
| Africa | 514,001 | ||||||
| Americas | 3,335 | ||||||
| Europe |
1,010 |
||||||
| Bootstrap resampling | |||||||
| World | 1,691,666 (975,292) | 679,393 | 1,080,049 | 1,416,482 | 1,906,564 | 4,651,474 | |
| Asia | 1,172,573 (959,859) | 261,493 | 566,081 | 887,126 | 1,355,607 | 4,107,355 | |
| Africa | 513,928 (171,607) | 257,863 | 380,681 | 487,549 | 624,155 | 902,139 | |
| Americas | 3,343 (214) | 3,133 | 3,181 | 3,272 | 3,448 | 3,912 | |
| Europe |
1,821 (424) |
1,595 |
1,632 |
1,688 |
1,818 |
3,717 |
|
| Hierarchical Bayes† | |||||||
| World | 2,096,080 (1,754,315) | 568,038 | 1,063,620 | 1,592,291 | 2,511,881 | 6,616,334 | |
| Asia | 1,622,446 (1,680,985) | 246,536 | 639,906 | 1,117,309 | 1,993,573 | 5,972,342 | |
| Africa | 468,321 (291,337) | 168,919 | 283,125 | 393,384 | 562,957 | 1,210,226 | |
| Americas | 3,425 (362) | 3,133 | 3,215 | 3,319 | 3,503 | 4,347 | |
| Europe | 1,889 (446) | 1,593 | 1,654 | 1,746 | 1,944 | 3,050 | |
*Calculation of uncertainty intervals in the weighted average interpolation method was not performed due to the nature of the model. During bootstrap resampling, uncertainty intervals were calculated using one million resampled risk estimates based on observed reported case count values. †The hierarchical Bayes model intervals were calculated using 1 million posterior samples. Posterior distributions were estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on observed reported case count values. For the MCMC algorithm, 50,000 burn-in iterations were performed before the samples were retained.
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Page updated: August 20, 2023
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