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Volume 30, Number 10—October 2024
Research

Epidemiologic Quantities for Monkeypox Virus Clade I from Historical Data with Implications for Current Outbreaks, Democratic Republic of the Congo

Valentina Marziano, Giorgio Guzzetta, Ira Longini1, and Stefano Merler1Comments to Author 
Author affiliations: Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy (V. Marziano, G. Guzzetta, S. Merler); University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (I. Longini)

Main Article

Figure

Estimates of key epidemiologic parameters for monkeypox virus clade I from historical data with implications for current outbreaks, Democratic Republic of the Congo. A) Cumulative density function of the incubation period, estimated from data on 15 cases reported in a previous study (7). B) Cumulative density function of the serial interval, estimated from data on 32 transmission links associated with household outbreaks (8,9), and on data on 11 transmission links associated with a hospital outbreak (10). C) Cumulative density function of the estimated generation time, based on the same data reported for the serial interval and on estimates of the incubation period. D) Estimates of Rt in the Kamituga Health Zone, obtained from the time-series of hospitalized cases (suspected, probable, and confirmed) (L.M. Masirika et al., unpub. data, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.05.10.24307057v1) and using the 2 estimates of the generation times. Lines indicate mean estimates; shaded areas indicate 95% credible intervals. Rt, time-varying reproduction number.

Figure. Estimates of key epidemiologic parameters for monkeypox virus clade I from historical data with implications for current outbreaks, Democratic Republic of the Congo. A) Cumulative density function of the incubation period, estimated from data on 15 cases reported in a previous study (7). B) Cumulative density function of the serial interval, estimated from data on 32 transmission links associated with household outbreaks (8,9), and on data on 11 transmission links associated with a hospital outbreak (10). C) Cumulative density function of the estimated generation time, based on the same data reported for the serial interval and on estimates of the incubation period. D) Estimates of Rt in the Kamituga Health Zone, obtained from the time-series of hospitalized cases (suspected, probable, and confirmed) (L.M. Masirika et al., unpub. data, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.05.10.24307057v1) and using the 2 estimates of the generation times. Lines indicate mean estimates; shaded areas indicate 95% credible intervals. Rt, time-varying reproduction number.

Main Article

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Main Article

1These senior authors contributed equally to this article.

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