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Volume 30, Number 9—September 2024
Dispatch

Mosquitoes as Vectors of Mycobacterium ulcerans Based on Analysis of Notifications of Alphavirus Infection and Buruli Ulcer, Victoria, Australia

Andrew H. Buultjens, Ee Laine Tay, Aidan Yuen, N. Deborah Friedman, Timothy P. Stinear, and Paul D.R. JohnsonComments to Author 
Author affiliations: Doherty Institute, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (A.H. Buultjens, T.P. Stinear); Victoria Department of Health, Melbourne (E.L. Tay, A. Yuen, N.D. Friedman); Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia (P.D.R. Johnson); University of Melbourne, Melbourne (P.D.R. Johnson)

Main Article

Figure 2

Analysis of temporally adjusted Buruli ulcer and alphavirus notifications in Victoria, Australia, 2017–2022. A) Notifications over time (no delay). Plot of the 2 datasets (outliers censored) was log transformed and smoothed by month and year. B) Optimal shift and cross-correlation analysis. Algorithmically determined cross correlation (blue line) and optimal curve shift of −5 months (vertical red dashed line) that best aligned the 2 log transformed curves shown in panel A. In green is a density curve that depicts the outcomes of 1,000 random data shuffles, serving as a visual indicator of how the observed −5 months curve shift diverges from random chance expectations. C) Notifications over time shifted to incorporate the Buruli ulcer incubation period of 5 months. Cross-correlation aligned smoothed log-transformed notification curves show synchronous inferred transmission peaks and troughs for both alphavirus infection and Buruli ulcer.

Figure 2. Analysis of temporally adjusted Buruli ulcer and alphavirus notifications in Victoria, Australia, 2017–2022. A) Notifications over time (no delay). Plot of the 2 datasets (outliers censored) was log transformed and smoothed by month and year. B) Optimal shift and cross-correlation analysis. Algorithmically determined cross correlation (blue line) and optimal curve shift of −5 months (vertical red dashed line) that best aligned the 2 log transformed curves shown in panel A. In green is a density curve that depicts the outcomes of 1,000 random data shuffles, serving as a visual indicator of how the observed −5 months curve shift diverges from random chance expectations. C) Notifications over time shifted to incorporate the Buruli ulcer incubation period of 5 months. Cross-correlation aligned smoothed log-transformed notification curves show synchronous inferred transmission peaks and troughs for both alphavirus infection and Buruli ulcer.

Main Article

Page created: July 12, 2024
Page updated: August 21, 2024
Page reviewed: August 21, 2024
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