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Volume 11, Number 12—December 2005
Research

Host Range and Emerging and Reemerging Pathogens

Mark E.J. Woolhouse*Comments to Author  and Sonya Gowtage-Sequeria*
Author affiliations: *Centre for Infectious Diseases, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

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Figure 3

Expected relationship between outbreak size (as fraction of the population affected) and 2 key epidemiologic parameters: I0 is the number of primary cases of infection introduced into the human population from an external source such as a zoonotic reservoir (increasing in the direction indicated); R0 is the basic reproduction number, a measure of the transmissibility of the infection with the human population (see text). The curves are obtained from a modified version of the Kermack-McKendrick e

Figure 3. . Expected relationship between outbreak size (as fraction of the population affected) and 2 key epidemiologic parameters: I0 is the number of primary cases of infection introduced into the human population from an external source such as a zoonotic reservoir (increasing in the direction indicated); R0 is the basic reproduction number, a measure of the transmissibility of the infection with the human population (see text). The curves are obtained from a modified version of the Kermack-McKendrick equation and show that expected outbreak size is particularly sensitive to small changes in I0 or R0 when R0 is close to 1. Examples of zoonotic pathogens with R0>1, R0<1 and R0 close to 1 are shown. RIVF, Rift Valley fever virus. (Reprinted with permission from [23]).

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