Volume 12, Number 1—January 2006
Research
Real-time Forecast of Multiphase Outbreak
Ying-Hen Hsieh*
and Yuan-Sen Cheng*
and Yuan-Sen Cheng*
Table 3
Estimates of parameters for Richards model using cumulative case data of selected time periods in phase 2 of 2003 Toronto area SARS outbreak starting from April 28 with 95% confidence interval for the maximum case number K*
| End date | Growth rate | Exponent of deviation | Turning point | Maximum case no. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 0.557 | 3.866 | 24.59 | 223.37 (199.67–247.07) |
| May 27 | 0.350 | 2.393 | 25.84 | 244.36 (220.53–268.18) |
| May 29 | 0.236 | 1.554 | 27.36 | 271.28 (240.94–301.62) |
| May 31 | 0.321 | 2.202 | 26.43 | 252.53 (244.32–260.74) |
| Jun 2 | 0.352 | 2.448 | 26.36 | 249.51 (245.70–253.33) |
| Jun 4 | 0.359 | 2.508 | 26.36 | 248.96 (246.67–251.25) |
| Jun 6 | 0.367 | 2.576 | 26.37 | 248.52 (246.98–250.07) |
*SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome.
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