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Volume 13, Number 1—January 2007


Death Rates from Malaria Epidemics, Burundi and Ethiopia

Jean-Paul Guthmann*1Comments to Author , Maryline Bonnet*, Laurence Ahoua*, François Dantoine*, Suna Balkan†, Michel Van Herp‡, Abiy Tamrat§, Dominique Legros*¶, Vincent Brown*, and Francesco Checchi*#

Author affiliations: *Epicentre, Paris, France; †Médecins Sans Frontières, Paris, France; ‡Médecins Sans Frontières, Brussels, Belgium; §Médecins Sans Frontières, Geneva, Switzerland; ¶World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; #London School of Hygiene, London, United Kingdom; Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom;

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Table 2

Estimated number of deaths, total population and children <5 years of age, Burundi (2000–2001) and Ethiopia (2003–2004) malaria epidemics*

 KayanzaNgoziKaruziDamot Gale
Estimated source population (total)246,500574,400308,400286,600
Estimated no. children <5 y† 41,900 (17%)103,400 (18%)61,100 (19.8%)59,900 (20.9%)
Recall period, d (approximate proportion of entire epidemic period)53 (20%)155 (74%)153 (85%)125 (83%)
Estimated no. deaths, all causes (95% CI)1,300 (800–2200)16,000 (11,600–20,500)5,200 (4,700–7,100)7,500 (5,400–10,400)
Estimated no. deaths, all causes, children < 5 y (95% CI)800 (400–1,600)8,000 (5,300–11,900)2,800 (1,900–4,100)2,500 1,700–3,800)
Estimated no. deaths probably due to malaria (95% CI)1,000 (500–,2,000)8,900 (6,200–13,400)2,800 (1,900–3,800)5,400 (3,600–7,500)
Estimated no. deaths probably due to malaria, children <5 y (95% CI)500 (200–1,200)4,200 (2,400–7,400)1,500 (800–2,600)2,100 (1,400–3,100)

*CI, confidence interval.
†Using estimates from respective surveys, the mid-period proportion of children <5 years was calculated as follows: (children alive at end of period + [0.5 × deaths for children <5 y during period])/(all persons alive at end of period + [0.5 × all deaths during period]).

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1Current affiliation: Institut de Veille Sanitaire, Saint-Maurice, France