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Volume 13, Number 3—March 2007


Effectiveness of Neuraminidase Inhibitors for Preventing Staff Absenteeism during Pandemic Influenza

Vernon J. Lee*Comments to Author  and Mark I. Chen*

Author affiliations: *Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore;

Main Article

Table 1

Parameters of neuraminadase inhibitor stockpiling strategies model*

Base case‡

General populationNg4,350,000 (13)
Healthcare staffNh20,000Estimated
ILI rate, per dayι2,800 (2)
Transmission dynamics
Incubation and latent period, dα1.02.03.0 (9,10)
Infectious period, dγ1.54.17.0 (9,10)
Reproductive numberR01.52.56.0 (9,14)
Transmission probability/dβ0.370.612.0Calculated, R/γ
HCW-to-HCW transmissionω0.20.50.8See text
HCW infections caused by incident cases of clinical influenza (H/P)δ02.0See text
Detection threshold, proportion of baseline ILI rateνIntroduction of 1st case0.11See text
Disease severity and antiviral efficacy
Hospitalization rate (HCW)/100,000 infected§η12.488.6186.7 (2)
Length of stay and medical leave if hospitalized, dφ9.012.020.0(2)
Case-fatality rate (HCW)/100,000 infected§μ1.920.365.1 (2)
Proportion of infected persons without prophylaxis who have symptomsθ10.500.670.80 (9,15)
Oseltamivir efficacy for preventing infection in exposed personsε10.280.350.52 (9,16,17)
Oseltamivir efficacy for preventing disease in infected personsε20.50.60.9 (2,9)
Oseltamivir efficacy for preventing transmission of infection by infected personsε30.60.80.98 (9)
Proportion of infected persons receiving oseltamivir prophylaxis who have symptomsθ20.07-0.2Calculated, θ2 = θ1(1−ε2)
Medical leave without treatment, dσ245 (2)
Reduction in medical leave with oseltamivir treatment, dχ0.11.02.0 (2)
Reduction in hospitalization or case-fatality rate with treatmentψ0.40.60.8 (2,18)

*HCW, healthcare workers, ILI, influenzalike illness.

†Notations are used in the equations listed in the Appendix.

‡Base case values are given with the minimum and maximum values used in the model where applicable.

§Based on hospitalizations and deaths among those with clinical influenza.

Main Article