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Volume 15, Number 10—October 2009


A Model-based Assessment of Oseltamivir Prophylaxis Strategies to Prevent Influenza in Nursing Homes

Carline van den DoolComments to Author , Eelko Hak, Marc J.M. Bonten1, and Jacco Wallinga1
Author affiliations: University Medical Center, Utrecht, the Netherlands (C. van den Dool, E. Hak, M.J.M. Bonten, J. Wallinga); University Medical Center, Groningen, the Netherlands (E. Hak); National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands (J. Wallinga)

Main Article

Table 1

Parameter values baseline scenario*

Parameter Value Reference
No. beds 30
No. HCWs 30
Time step (= shift), h 8 (18)
Minimum duration of simulation, d 80
Discharge/mortality rate, per d 1/425 (16,17)
Rate of becoming infectious after infection, per d 1/1/4 (20,21)
Infection recovery rate, per d 1/1/4 (20,21)
Prior immunity HCWs 0.3 (22)
Prior immunity patients 0
Vaccine uptake patients 75% (25)
Vaccine uptake HCWs 40% (2)
Vaccine efficacy (against infection)
Patients 25% (28)
HCWs 73% (27)
Transmission probability per casual contact 0.13 (18)
Close/casual transmission probability ratio 2
Mean visitor frequency/patient/d 0.7 (31)
Minimum duration of postexposure prophylaxis, d 14 (2)
Minimum duration of postexposure prophylaxis after last detected case, d
Parameters in uncertainty analyses
Probability of disease developing after infection (range) 0.5 (0.30–0.7) (4)
Probability of disease developing after infection, during prophylaxis (range) 0.2 (0.05–0.4) (4)
Oseltamivir efficacy against infection (range) 0.53 (0.2–0.8) (4)
Oseltamivir reduction in infectiousness (range) 0.2 (0–0.5) (4)

*HCW, healthcare worker.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.