Volume 18, Number 9—September 2012
CME ACTIVITY - Research
Effectiveness and Timing of Vaccination during School Measles Outbreak
|Duration of incubation period (from distribution)||Dinc||Log normal (2.3,0.2); 7–14 d after infection, mode 10 d.||(21–23)|
|Duration of latent period (distribution)||Dlat||(Dinc − 4) + normal (0.7); latent period ends ≈4 d before symptom onset.||(21–23)|
|Duration of infectious period (from distribution)||Dinf||(Dinc + 4 − Dlat) + normal (0.7); infectious period ends ≈4 d after symptom onset.||(21–23)|
|Duration of symptomatic period (from distribution)||Dsymp||Dlat + Dinf − Dinc; assumes that symptomatic period ends at same time as infectious period.||(21–23)|
|Duration of period to build up immunity after vaccination (from distribution)||Dimm||13.2 + normal (3.0); approximates measles-specific IgM positivity rates of 2% and 61% after 1 and 2 weeks of vaccination, respectively.||(24)|
|Number of daily contacts per person (from distribution)||ncont||20 + NegBin (0.155,2.2).||(25)|
|Infection probability of a susceptible person after contact with an infectious person||Pinf||0.12 in the R0≈16 scenario; 0.2348 in the R0≈31 scenario.||This article (Model Calibration)|
|Infection probability of a vaccinated person after contact with an infectious person||Pinf,vac||Pinf (1 − VES ); 3 × 10–4 in the R0≈16 scenario; 5.869 × 10–4 in the R0≈31 scenario.||This article (Vaccination)|
*NegBin, negative binomial probability distribution; R0≈16, scenario in which basic reproduction number R0≈16 is considered; R0≈31, scenario in which basic reproduction number R0≈31 is considered.
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