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Volume 18, Number 9—September 2012


Effectiveness and Timing of Vaccination during School Measles Outbreak

Axel Antonio Bonačić MarinovićComments to Author , Corien Swaan, Ole Wichmann, Jim van Steenbergen, and Mirjam Kretzschmar
Author affiliations: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands (A.A. Bonačić Marinović, C. Swaan, J. van Steenbergen, M. Kretzschmar); University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands (A.A. Bonačić Marinović, M. Kretzschmar); Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany (O. Wichmann); and Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands (J. van Steenbergen)

Main Article


Definitions of measles outbreak model parameters with assumed values and probability distribution*

Model parameter Notation Value/distribution Reference
Duration of incubation period (from distribution) Dinc Log normal (2.3,0.2); 7–14 d after infection, mode 10 d. (2123)
Duration of latent period (distribution) Dlat (Dinc − 4) + normal (0.7); latent period ends ≈4 d before symptom onset. (2123)
Duration of infectious period (from distribution) Dinf (Dinc + 4 − Dlat) + normal (0.7); infectious period ends ≈4 d after symptom onset. (2123)
Duration of symptomatic period (from distribution) Dsymp Dlat + Dinf − Dinc; assumes that symptomatic period ends at same time as infectious period. (2123)
Duration of period to build up immunity after vaccination (from distribution) Dimm 13.2 + normal (3.0); approximates measles-specific IgM positivity rates of 2% and 61% after 1 and 2 weeks of vaccination, respectively. (24)
Number of daily contacts per person (from distribution) ncont 20 + NegBin (0.155,2.2). (25)
Infection probability of a susceptible person after contact with an infectious person Pinf 0.12 in the R0≈16 scenario; 0.2348 in the R0≈31 scenario. This article (Model Calibration)
Vaccination effectiveness VES 0.9975. (5)
Infection probability of a vaccinated person after contact with an infectious person Pinf,vac Pinf (1 − VES ); 3 × 10–4 in the R0≈16 scenario; 5.869 × 10–4 in the R0≈31 scenario. This article (Vaccination)

*NegBin, negative binomial probability distribution; R0≈16, scenario in which basic reproduction number R0≈16 is considered; R0≈31, scenario in which basic reproduction number R0≈31 is considered.

Main Article