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Volume 19, Number 4—April 2013
Research

Predicting Hotspots for Influenza Virus Reassortment

Trevon L. FullerComments to Author , Marius Gilbert, Vincent Martin, Julien Cappelle, Parviez Hosseini, Kevin Y. Njabo, Soad Abdel Aziz, Xiangming Xiao, Peter Daszak, and Thomas B. Smith
Author affiliations: University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA (T.L. Fuller, K.Y. Njabo, T.B. Smith); Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium (M. Gilbert); Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Beijing, People’s Republic of China (V. Martin); Centre de Cooperation International en Recherche Agronomique pour le Developpement, Montpellier, France (J. Cappelle); EcoHealth Alliance, New York, New York, USA (P. Hosseini, P. Daszak); National Laboratory for Quality Control on Poultry Production, Dokki, Giza, Egypt (S.A. Aziz); University of Oklahoma, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA (X. Xiao)

Main Article

Table

Effect of environmental variables on occurrence of influenza virus subtypes*

Location, subtype (data source)
 Coefficient
 SE
 p value
China
Subtype H3N2
Intercept −5.184 0.946 8.7 × 10−8
Human population 9.47 × 10−4 3.23 × 10−4 4.47 × 10−2
Percentage urban 0.113 0.117 0.284
Precipitation 4.59 × 10−3 8.87 × 10−3 0.573
Temperature 1.24 × 10−2 8.27 × 10−3 0.195
Subtype H5N1 (surveillance dataset)
Intercept −7.93 1.66 3.01 × 10−5
Chicken density −6.94 × 10−2 0.438 0.572
Duck density 1.53 0.433 3.45 × 10−3
Human population 1.41 × 10−3 2.85 × 10−4 1.77 × 10−4
Percentage agriculture 2.18 × 10−4 1.52 × 10−4 0.218
Percentage water 7.32 × 10−2 1.7 × 10−2 2.36 × 10−3
Subtype H5N1 (outbreak dataset)
Intercept −9.24 1.14 3.15 × 10−12
Chicken density 1.24 0.277 2.87 × 10−4
Duck density 0.542 0.24 0.117
Human population 1.37 × 10−3 2.67 × 10−4 1.41 × 10−3
Percentage agriculture 2.13 × 10−4 8.84 × 10−5 5.4 × 10−2
Percentage water 0.101 1.91 × 10−2 4.53 × 10−3
Egypt
Subtype H5N1
Intercept 1.83 0.516 4 × 10−4
Poultry density 7.86 × 10−4 2.31 × 10−4 7 × 10−4
Human population 3.36 × 10−2 6.49 × 10−2 0.605
Percentage water
 0.752
 0.41
 6.64 × 10−2
*Boldface indicates p<0.05.

Main Article

Page created: March 13, 2013
Page updated: March 13, 2013
Page reviewed: March 13, 2013
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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