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Volume 21, Number 5—May 2015

Transmission Potential of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, China, 2013–2014

Adam J. Kucharski1Comments to Author , Harriet L. Mills1, Christl A. Donnelly, and Steven Riley
Author affiliations: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK (A.J. Kucharski); National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA (A.J. Kucharski); Imperial College London, London (A.J. Kucharski, H.L. Mills, C.A. Donnelly, S. Riley)

Main Article


Estimates of human-to-human transmission and effectiveness of live bird market closures, China, 2013–2014*

Region, outbreak wave Total no. cases R0 (95% CrI) Human-to-human transmission, no. cases (95% CrI) Hazard reduction, % (95% CrI)
Shanghai, first
0.32 (0.06–0.60)
11.0 (2.3–14.8)
99 (95–100)
First 23 0.24 (0.03–0.69) 6.7 (2.0–12.2) 97 (80–100)
0.13 (0.01–0.41)
2.9 (0.1–8.7)
First 46 0.06 (0.00–0.25) 3.8 (0.8–12.4) 99 (97–100)
0.35 (0.15–0.65)
32.5 (17.3–48.9)
97 (92–99)
Guangdong, second 103 0.16 (0.01–0.54) 16.7 (1.0–48.6) 73 (53–89)

*A serial interval of 7 days was assumed. For sensitivity analysis, see Technical Appendix. CrI, credible interval; NC, not calculated; R0, reproduction number (average number of secondary cases generated by a typical infectious host in a fully susceptible population).

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: April 17, 2015
Page updated: April 17, 2015
Page reviewed: April 17, 2015
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