Volume 22, Number 1—January 2016
Research
Human Papillomavirus Vaccination at a Time of Changing Sexual Behavior
Table
Model parameters related to HPV16 infection, sexual behavior, and vaccine efficacy and values assigned or calibrated*
Parameter | Value | Source |
---|---|---|
Probability of transmission per sexual partnership, % | 80 | Assumed |
Fraction of immunity after infection clearance, % |
20 |
Assumed |
Rate of clearance by duration since infection, person-year | Assumed | |
<1 y | 1.3 | |
1–2 y | 0.8 | |
>2 y |
0.3 |
|
New sexual partners per year, mean | ||
Heterosexual population with traditional sexual behavior | 2.0 | Calibrated |
Heterosexual population with gender-similar sexual behavior | 1.5 | Calibrated |
Heterosexual population with gender-similar sexual behavior with increased number of partners | 2.0† | SA |
Heterosexual population with traditional sexual behavior with decreased number of partners |
1.5‡ |
SA |
Mixing between classes of sexual activity§ | 0.7 | Calibrated |
0.3 |
SA |
|
Vaccination efficacy | 95% | Assumed |
Duration of vaccine protection | Lifelong | Assumed |
*Values have been assumed on the basis of previous research (7). We calibrated values by fitting model-based projections to data from rural India (19) and the United States (20). SA indicates that the value was imposed on the model for univariate sensitivity analysis.
† We increased the average number of partners from 1.5, the calibrated value, to 2.0 in the population with gender-similar sexual behavior.
‡ We decreased the average number of partners from 2.0, the calibrated value, to 1.5 in the population with traditional behavior.
§”Mixing between classes of sexual activity” is a measure of the tendency for persons with similar levels of sexual activity to form sexual partnerships. It is measured on a scale where fully and randomly assortative (i.e., like-with-like) mixing corresponds to values 0 and 1, respectively. For the sensitivity analysis, we changed the value of assortative mixing by level of sexual activity from 0.7, the calibrated value, to 0.3.
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