Skip directly to site content Skip directly to page options Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link
Volume 23, Number 1—January 2017
Etymologia

Etymologia: Bayesian Probability

Ronnie HenryComments to Author  and Martin I. Meltzer

Cite This Article

Bayesian Probability

Figure

Thumbnail of Thomas Bayes

Figure. Thomas Bayes

Thomas Bayes (1701–1761) (Figure) was a Presbyterian Minister, and how he become interested in statistics and probability is uncertain. Bayes presented his famous theorem on probability in “An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances,” which was published posthumously by his friend Richard Price in 1763. Bayes’s theorem provides a method of explicitly including prior events or knowledge when considering the probabilities of current events (for example, including a history of smoking when calculating the probability of developing lung cancer). Bayesian approaches use prior knowledge and information (e.g., probabilities) that may help reduce uncertainty in analysis and have therefore been increasingly adopted by analysts in public health.

Top

References

  1. Armitage  P, Berry  G. Statistical methods in medical research. London: Blackwell Scientific Publications; 1994.
  2. McGrayne  SB. The theory that would not die: how Bayes’ rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down Russian submarines and emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy. New Haven (CT): Yale University Press; 2011.
  3. Barnard  GA. Thomas Bayes—a biographical note. Biometrika. 1958;45:2935. DOI

Top

Figure

Top

Cite This Article

DOI: 10.3201/eid2301.et2301

Related Links

Top

Table of Contents – Volume 23, Number 1—January 2017

Comments

Please use the form below to submit correspondence to the authors or contact them at the following address:

Ronnie Henry, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd NE, Mailstop E03, Atlanta, GA 30329-4027, USA

Send To

character(s) remaining.

Comment submitted successfully, thank you for your feedback.

Top

Page created: December 14, 2016
Page updated: December 14, 2016
Page reviewed: December 14, 2016
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
file_external