Volume 23, Number 10—October 2017
Dispatch
Epidemiology of Reemerging Scarlet Fever, Hong Kong, 2005–2015
Chun Fan Lee, Benjamin J. Cowling
, and Eric H. Y. Lau
, and Eric H. Y. Lau
Table
Estimated incidence rate ratios of various epidemiologic and meteorological factors affecting reemergence of scarlet fever, Hong Kong, 2005–2015*
| Preupsurge period, 2005–2010, 311 wks | Postupsurge period, 2012–2015, 209 wks | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Linear time trend, per year |
0.98 (0.95–1.02) |
0.92 (0.89–0.94) |
|
| Sex | |||
| F | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| M |
1.33 (0.92–1.94) |
1.08 (0.87–1.34) |
|
| Age group, y | |||
| 0–2 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| 3–5 | 2.78 (2.02–3.90) | 3.17 (2.63–3.84) | |
| 6–11 | 1.29 (0.95–1.80) | 2.06 (1.71–2.50) | |
| 12–14 |
0.13 (0.07–0.24) |
0.14 (0.09–0.21) |
|
| Sex × age interaction | |||
| Boys, 0–2 y | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Boys, 3–5 y | 1.11 (0.72–1.68) | 1.36 (1.07–1.74) | |
| Boys, 6–11 y | 1.07 (0.70–1.61) | 1.22 (0.96–1.55) | |
| Boys, 12–14 y |
1.01 (0.44–2.36) |
1.86 (1.12–3.15) |
|
| School holidays in the preceding week |
0.68 (0.55–0.85) |
0.58 (0.51–0.65) |
|
| Temperature, °C |
0.991 (0.953–1.031) |
0.963 (0.940–0.987) |
|
| Relative humidity, % |
0.981 (0.972–0.990) |
0.997 (0.992–1.002) |
|
| Rainfall, mm | 1.009 (1.002–1.016) | 0.998 (0.993–1.002) |
*Incidence rate ratios estimated by negative binomial regression models also accounting for autocorrelation and annual and biannual seasonality using Fourier terms with periods of 1 year (T) and half a year (T/2), where T = 365.25/7 weeks. IRR, incidence rate ratio.
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Page updated: September 18, 2017
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