Influence of Population Immunosuppression and Past Vaccination on Smallpox Reemergence
C. Raina MacIntyre, Valentina Costantino
, Xin Chen, Eva Segelov, Abrar Ahmad Chughtai, Anthony Kelleher, Mohana Kunasekaran, and John Michael Lane
Author affiliations: School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia (C.R. MacIntyre, V. Costantino, X. Chen, A.A. Chughtai, M. Kunasekaran); Arizona State University, Phoenix, Arizona, USA (C.R. MacIntyre); Monash University and Monash Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (E. Segelov); Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney (A. Kelleher); Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (J.M. Lane)
Figure 4. Smallpox infection and death rates with different levels of residual vaccine immunity including and excluding immunosuppression in model of smallpox transmission, by age group, New York, NY, USA, and Sydney, Australia. Characteristics (e.g., size, age, immunosuppression rates) of populations from 2015 were used. A) New York 50 days after start of smallpox outbreak with no (top), base case (middle), and high (bottom) residual vaccine immunity. B) Sydney 50 days after start of smallpox outbreak with no (top), base case (middle), and high (bottom) residual vaccine immunity.
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