Volume 25, Number 5—May 2019
Dispatch
Novel Method for Rapid Detection of Spatiotemporal HIV Clusters Potentially Warranting Intervention
Table
Characteristic |
All diagnoses |
Diagnoses attributable to injection drug use |
|||||
Counties with alerts, no. (%)* |
Counties without alerts, no. (%) |
p value |
Counties with alerts, no. (%)* |
Counties without alerts, no. (%) |
p value |
||
Region (7) | |||||||
Northeast | 21 (15) | 196 (7) | 0.0002 | 3 (14) | 214 (7) | 0.18 | |
Midwest | 27 (19) | 1,028 (34) | 0.0001 | 6 (29) | 1,049 (34) | 0.63 | |
South | 84 (59) | 1,338 (45) | 0.0009 | 8 (38) | 1,414 (45) | 0.51 | |
West |
11 (8) |
437 (15) |
0.022 |
4 (19) |
444 (14) |
0.53 |
|
Baseline mean annual HIV diagnoses, 2013–2015 | |||||||
<3 | 52 (36) | 2,128 (71) | <10–4 | 13 (62) | 2,176 (69) | 0.46 | |
3–9 | 40 (28) | 463 (15) | <10–4 | 8 (38) | 495 (16) | 0.0056 | |
>9 |
51 (36) |
408 (14) |
<10–4 |
0 |
459 (15) |
0.057 |
|
Total counties | 143 (100) | 2,999 (100) | 21 (100) | 3,121 (100) |
*An alert occurred when the number of diagnoses in 2016 increased by >2 SD and >2 diagnoses compared with the mean annual baseline over the preceding 3 years (2013–2015).
References
- Peters PJ, Pontones P, Hoover KW, Patel MR, Galang RR, Shields J, et al.; Indiana HIV Outbreak Investigation Team. HIV infection linked to injection use of oxymorphone in Indiana, 2014–2015. N Engl J Med. 2016;375:229–39. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Oster AM, France AM, Panneer N, Bañez Ocfemia MC, Campbell E, Dasgupta S, et al. Identifying clusters of recent and rapid HIV transmission through analysis of molecular surveillance data. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2018;79:543–50. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Dasgupta S, France AM, Brandt MG, Reuer J, Zhang T, Panneer N, et al. Estimating effects of HIV sequencing data completeness on transmission network patterns and detection of growing HIV transmission clusters. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2018 Dec 20 [cited 2018 Dec 20].
- Chen D, Cunningham J, Moore K, Tian J. Spatial and temporal aberration detection methods for disease outbreaks in syndromic surveillance systems. Ann GIS. 2011;17:211–20. DOIGoogle Scholar
- Hutwagner L, Browne T, Seeman GM, Fleischauer AT. Comparing aberration detection methods with simulated data. Emerg Infect Dis. 2005;11:314–6. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Wong WK, Moore M, Cooper G, Wagner M. What’s strange about recent events (WSARE): an algorithm for the early detection of disease outbreaks. J Mach Learn Res. 2005;6:1961–98.
- US Census Bureau. Geography. 2015 Jul 28 [cited 2018 Feb 23]. https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/webatlas/regions.html
- Rosinska M, Pantazis N, Janiec J, Pharris A, Amato-Gauci AJ, Quinten C; ECDC HIV/AIDS Surveillance Network. Potential adjustment methodology for missing data and reporting delay in the HIV Surveillance System, European Union/European Economic Area, 2015. Euro Surveill. 2018;23:23. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Rudd RA, Aleshire N, Zibbell JE, Gladden RM. Increases in drug and opioid overdose deaths—United States, 2000–2014. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2016;64:1378–82. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. Key substance use and mental health indicators in the United States: results from the 2016 National Survey on Drug Use and Health; 2017 Sep [cited 2018 Feb 23]. https://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/NSDUH-FFR1-2016/NSDUH-FFR1-2016.htm#opioid1
- Van Handel MM, Rose CE, Hallisey EJ, Kolling JL, Zibbell JE, Lewis B, et al. County-level vulnerability assessment for rapid dissemination of HIV or HCV infections among persons who inject drugs, United States. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2016;73:323–31. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
Page created: April 17, 2019
Page updated: April 17, 2019
Page reviewed: April 17, 2019
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.