Skip directly to site content Skip directly to page options Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link
Volume 25, Number 6—June 2019
Research

Joint Estimation of Relative Risk for Dengue and Zika Infections, Colombia, 2015–2016

Daniel Adyro Martínez-Bello1Comments to Author , Antonio López-Quílez, and Alexander Torres Prieto
Author affiliations: University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain (D.A. Martínez-Bello, A. López-Quílez); Secretary of Health of the Department of Santander, Bucaramanga, Colombia (A. Torres Prieto)

Main Article

Table 2

Zika and dengue suspected and confirmed cases reported in Colombia, department of Santander, and city of Bucaramanga, 2015–2016

Disease, level
Suspected*
Confirmed†
Total‡
Incidence rate§
Population × 1,000
Zika
Colombia¶ 96,860 9,799 106,659 219.0 48,654
Santander# 9,420 547 9,967 493.1 2,090
Bucaramanga**
No data
No data
3,662
692.8
529
Dengue
Colombia†† 100,117 899 101,016 207.6 48,654
Santander†† No data No data 6934 331.6 2,090
Bucaramanga** No data No data 2470 467.3 529

*Based on clinical signs.
†Laboratory confirmed.
‡Suspected cases with laboratory confirmation.
§(Total no. cases/population × 1,000) × 100,000.
¶August 9, 2015–January 5, 2017 (3).
#Epidemiologic week 45 of 2015 to epidemiologic week 52 of 2016 (3).
**Epidemiologic week 45 of 2015 to epidemiologic week 52 of 2016 (this study).
††Epidemiologic weeks 1–52, 2016 (2).

Main Article

References
  1. Plourde  AR, Bloch  EM. A literature review of Zika virus. Emerg Infect Dis. 2016;22:118592. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  2. Villar  LA, Rojas  DP, Besada-Lombana  S, Sarti  E. Epidemiological trends of dengue disease in Colombia (2000-2011): a systematic review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015;9:e0003499. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  3. National Health Institute. Event report: dengue, 2016 [in Spanish] [cited 2019 Apr 1]. http://www.ins.gov.co/buscador-http://www.ins.gov.co/buscador-eventos/Informesdeevento/Dengue%202016.pdf
  4. National Health Institute of Colombia. Weekly epidemiological bulletin number 52 of 2016, 25 December–31 December [in Spanish] [cited 2019 Apr 1]. http://www.ins.gov.co/buscador-eventos/BoletinEpidemiologico/2016%20Bolet%C3%ADn%20epidemiol%C3%B3gico%20semana%2052%20-.pdf
  5. Banerjee  S, Carlin  BP, Gelfand  AE. Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data. In: Bunea F, Isham V, Keiding N, Louis T, Smith RL, Tong H, editors. Chapman & Hall/CRC Monographs on Statistics & Applied Probability. 2nd ed. Boca Raton (FL): Taylor & Francis Group; 2014. p. 305–24.
  6. Racloz  V, Ramsey  R, Tong  S, Hu  W. Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012;6:e1648. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  7. Louis  VR, Phalkey  R, Horstick  O, Ratanawong  P, Wilder-Smith  A, Tozan  Y, et al. Modeling tools for dengue risk mapping - a systematic review. Int J Health Geogr. 2014;13:50. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  8. Ferreira  GS, Schmidt  AM. Spatial modelling of the relative risk of dengue fever in Rio de Janeiro for the epidemic period between 2001 and 2002. Braz J Probab Stat. 2006;20:2947.
  9. Martínez-Bello  DA, López-Quílez  A, Torres Prieto  A. Relative risk estimation of dengue disease at small spatial scale. Int J Health Geogr. 2017;16:31. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  10. Restrepo  AC, Baker  P, Clements  ACA. National spatial and temporal patterns of notified dengue cases, Colombia 2007-2010. Trop Med Int Health. 2014;19:86371. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  11. Martínez-Bello  D, López-Quílez  A, Torres Prieto  A. Spatiotemporal modeling of relative risk of dengue disease in Colombia. Stochastic Environ Res Risk Assess. 2018;32:1587601. DOIGoogle Scholar
  12. Rodriguez-Morales  AJ, Patiño-Cadavid  LJ, Lozada-Riascos  CO, Villamil-Gómez  WE. Mapping Zika in municipalities of one coastal department of Colombia (Sucre) using geographic information systems during the 2015-2016 outbreak: implications for public health and travel advice. Int J Infect Dis. 2016;48:702. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  13. Rodriguez-Morales  AJ, Galindo-Marquez  ML, García-Loaiza  CJ, Sabogal-Roman  JA, Marin-Loaiza  S, Ayala  AF, et al. Mapping Zika virus infection using geographical information systems in Tolima, Colombia, 2015-2016. F1000 Res. 2016;5:568. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  14. Rodriguez-Morales  AJ, García-Loaiza  CJ, Galindo-Marquez  ML, Sabogal-Roman  JA, Marin-Loaiza  S, Lozada-Riascos  CO, et al. Zika infection GIS-based mapping suggest high transmission activity in the border area of La Guajira, Colombia, a northeastern coast Caribbean department, 2015-2016: Implications for public health, migration and travel. Travel Med Infect Dis. 2016;14:2868. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  15. Rodriguez-Morales  AJ, Haque  U, Ball  J, García-Loaiza  CJ, Galindo-Marquez  ML, Sabogal-Roman  JA, et al. Spatial distribution of Zika virus infection in Northeastern Colombia. Infez Med. 2017;25:2416.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  16. Rodriguez-Morales  AJ, Ruiz  P, Tabares  J, Ossa  CA, Yepes-Echeverry  MC, Ramirez-Jaramillo  V, et al. Mapping the ecoepidemiology of Zika virus infection in urban and rural areas of Pereira, Risaralda, Colombia, 2015-2016: Implications for public health and travel medicine. Travel Med Infect Dis. 2017;18:5766. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  17. Chien  L-C, Lin  R-T, Liao  Y, Sy  FS, Pérez  A. Surveillance on the endemic of Zika virus infection by meteorological factors in Colombia: a population-based spatial and temporal study. BMC Infect Dis. 2018;18:180. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  18. Li  X, Liu  T, Lin  L, Song  T, Du  X, Lin  H, et al. Application of the analytic hierarchy approach to the risk assessment of Zika virus disease transmission in Guangdong Province, China. BMC Infect Dis. 2017;17:65. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  19. Campos  MC, Dombrowski  JG, Phelan  J, Marinho  CRF, Hibberd  M, Clark  TG, et al. Zika might not be acting alone: Using an ecological study approach to investigate potential co-acting risk factors for an unusual pattern of microcephaly in Brazil. PLoS One. 2018;13:e0201452. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  20. Aguiar  BS, Lorenz  C, Virginio  F, Suesdek  L, Chiaravalloti-Neto  F. Potential risks of Zika and chikungunya outbreaks in Brazil: A modeling study. Int J Infect Dis. 2018;70:209. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  21. Rodrigues  NCP, Daumas  RP, de Almeida  AS, Dos Santos  RS, Koster  I, Rodrigues  PP, et al. Risk factors for arbovirus infections in a low-income community of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2015-2016. PLoS One. 2018;13:e0198357. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  22. Krystosik  AR, Curtis  A, Buritica  P, Ajayakumar  J, Squires  R, Dávalos  D, et al. Community context and sub-neighborhood scale detail to explain dengue, chikungunya and Zika patterns in Cali, Colombia. PLoS One. 2017;12:e0181208. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  23. Martínez-Bello  DA, López-Quílez  A, Torres Prieto  A. Spatio-temporal modeling of Zika and dengue infections within Colombia. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018;15:1376. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  24. Riou  J, Poletto  C, Boëlle  PY. A comparative analysis of Chikungunya and Zika transmission. Epidemics. 2017;19:4352. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  25. Funk  S, Kucharski  AJ, Camacho  A, Eggo  RM, Yakob  L, Murray  LM, et al. Comparative analysis of dengue and Zika outbreaks reveals differences by setting and virus. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016;10:e0005173. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  26. Pacheco  O, Beltrán  M, Nelson  CA, Valencia  D, Tolosa  N, Farr  SL, et al. Zika virus disease in Colombia—preliminary report. [cited 2019 Apr 15] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1604037
  27. Administrative Department of National Statistics. Colombia. Direction of geostatistics, urban section level layer, National Geostatistical Framework, 2005 [in Spanish] [cited 2018 Nov 10]. http://www.dane.gov.co
  28. National Health Institute of Colombia. Protocol of public health surveillance, dengue, code: 210, 220, 580 [in Spanish] [cited 2018 Nov 10]. https://www.ins.gov.co/buscador-eventos/ZIKA%20Lineamientos/Dengue%20PROTOCOLO.pdf
  29. National Health Institute of Colombia. Protocol of public health surveillance, Zika, code 895 [in Spanish] [cited 2019 Apr 1]. http://www.ins.gov.co/buscador-eventos/Lineamientos/PRO%20Zika.pdf
  30. Besag  J, York  J, Mollie  A. Bayesian image restoration with two applications in spatial statistics. Ann Inst Stat Math. 1991;43:159. DOIGoogle Scholar
  31. Ma  H, Carlin  BP. Bayesian multivariate areal Wombling for multiple disease boundary analysis [cited 2017 Oct 10]. http://www.biostat.umn.edu/~brad/software/mc.pdf
  32. Lunn  D, Spiegelhalter  D, Thomas  A, Best  N. The BUGS project: Evolution, critique and future directions. Stat Med. 2009;28:304967. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  33. Spiegelhalter  DJ, Best  NG, Carlin  BP, van der Linde  A. Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. Stat Methodol. 2002;64:583639. DOIGoogle Scholar
  34. Spiegelhalter  D, Thomas  A, Best  N, Lunn  D. OpenBUGS user manual: advanced use of the BUGS language [cited 2017 Nov 12]. http://www.ins.gov.co/buscador-eventos/Informesdeevento/Dengue%202016.pdf
  35. Costa  SDSB, Branco  MDRFC, Aquino Junior  J, Rodrigues  ZMR, Queiroz  RCS, Araujo  AS, et al. Spatial analysis of probable cases of dengue fever, chikungunya fever and zika virus infections in Maranhao State, Brazil. Rev Inst Med Trop São Paulo. 2018;60:e62. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  36. Christofferson  RC. Zika virus emergence and expansion: lessons learned from dengue and chikungunya may not provide all the answers. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2016;95:158. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  37. Romero-Vega  L, Pacheco  O, de la Hoz-Restrepo  F, Díaz-Quijano  FA. Evaluation of dengue fever reports during an epidemic, Colombia. Rev Saude Publica. 2014;48:899905. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  38. National Health Institute of Colombia. Subregister of Zika in Girardot, Cundinamarca, 2015–2016 [in Spanish] [cited 2018 Nov 15]. http://www.ins.gov.co/buscador-eventos/IQEN/Forms/AllItems.aspx
  39. Saiz  J-C, Martín-Acebes  MA, Bueno-Marí  R, Salomón  OD, Villamil-Jiménez  LC, Heukelbach  J, et al. Zika virus: what have we learnt since the start of the recent epidemic? Front Microbiol. 2017;8:1554. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  40. Siraj  AS, Rodriguez-Barraquer  I, Barker  CM, Tejedor-Garavito  N, Harding  D, Lorton  C, et al. Spatiotemporal incidence of Zika and associated environmental drivers for the 2015-2016 epidemic in Colombia. Sci Data. 2018;5:180073. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  41. Jaramillo-Martínez  GA, Vasquez-Serna  H, Chavarro-Ordoñez  R, Rojas-Gomez  OF, Jimenez-Canizales  CE, Rodriguez-Morales  AJ. Ibagué Saludable: A novel tool of Information and Communication Technologies for surveillance, prevention and control of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and other vector-borne diseases in Colombia. J Infect Public Health. 2018;11:1456. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar

Main Article

1Current affiliation: Health and Environment Secretary, Bucaramanga, Colombia.

Page created: May 20, 2019
Page updated: May 20, 2019
Page reviewed: May 20, 2019
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
file_external