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Volume 26, Number 10—October 2020
Dispatch

Deaths Associated with Pneumonic Plague, 1946–2017

Alex P. Salam1, Amanda Rojek1, Erhui Cai, Mihaja Raberahona, and Peter HorbyComments to Author 
Author affiliations: United Kingdom Public Health Rapid Support Team, London, UK (A.P. Salam); Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (A.P. Salam, E. Cai, M. Raberahona, P. Horby); Centre Hospitalier Befelatanana, Antananarivo, Madagascar (M. Raberahona); Centre for Integrated Critical Care, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (M. Raberahona)

Main Article

Table

Sensitivity analysis of antimicrobial drug use and rates of pneumonic plague–related deaths, 1946–2017

Antimicrobial drug use Confirmed cases, % (95% CI) Total cases, % (95% CI)
Treated
Primary plague 27 (14–47) 6 (1–31)
Undifferentiated
 28 (6–72)
 6 (1–31)
Not treated
Primary plague 94 (82–98) 99 (22–100)
Undifferentiated
 No data
 100*
Unknown
Primary plague No data 29 (13–51)
Undifferentiated 42 (23–64) 51 (31–71)

*Crude analysis; model fails under this condition.

Main Article

1These co–first authors contributed equally to this article.

The death rate for persons with treated pneumonic plague is often reported as 50%, but firm evidence for this figure is minimal. We conducted a meta-analysis of articles reporting the death rate for persons treated for pneumonic plague. The rate was 17%, substantially lower than the frequently cited 50%.

Page created: August 05, 2020
Page updated: September 17, 2020
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The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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