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Volume 26, Number 11—November 2020
Dispatch

Potential Role of Social Distancing in Mitigating Spread of Coronavirus Disease, South Korea

Sang Woo ParkComments to Author , Kaiyuan Sun, Cécile Viboud, Bryan T. Grenfell, and Jonathan Dushoff
Author affiliations: Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA (S.W. Park, B.T. Grenfell); National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA (K. Sun, C. Viboud, B.T. Grenfell); McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada (J. Dushoff)

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Table

Assumed incubation and generation-interval distributions in an analysis of the potential role of social distancing in mitigating the spread of coronavirus disease, South Korea, 2020*

Distribution Parameterization Priors Source
Incubation period distribution Gamma (µI, µ2I2) µI » gamma (6.5 d, 145); σ » gamma (2.6 d, 25) (6)
Generation-interval distribution Negative binomial (µG, θ) µG » gamma (5 d, 62); θ » gamma (5, 20) (7,8)

*Gamma distributions are parameterized using its mean and shape. Negative binomial distributions are parameterized using its mean and dispersion. Priors are chosen such that the 95% quantiles of prior means and standard deviations are consistent with previous estimates.

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References
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  9. Thompson  RN, Stockwin  JE, van Gaalen  RD, Polonsky  JA, Kamvar  ZN, Demarsh  PA, et al. Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks. Epidemics. 2019;29:100356. DOIPubMed
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  11. Kraemer  MUG, Yang  C-H, Gutierrez  B, Wu  C-H, Klein  B, Pigott  DM, et al.; Open COVID-19 Data Working Group. The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Science. 2020;368:4937. DOIPubMed

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Page updated: October 19, 2020 12:05 PM EDT
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