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Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020

Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020

Kenji MizumotoComments to Author  and Gerardo Chowell
Author affiliations: Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (K. Mizumoto, G. Chowell); Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan (K. Mizumoto)

Main Article


Summary results of time-delay adjusted CFR for COVID-19 in the 3 areas in China, January 1–February 11, 2020*

Area Latest estimate, % Median estimates during study period, % Crude CFR (95% CI), % No. deaths/
no. cases
Wuhan 12.2 (95% CrI 11.3–13.1) 4.1–34.8 4.2 (95% CI 3.9–4.5) 820/19,559
Hubei Province excluding Wuhan 4.2 (95% CrI 3.7–4.7) 4.2–88.3 1.8 (95% CI 1.6–2.0) 248/13,894
China excluding Hubei Province 0.9 (95% CrI 0.7–1.1) 0.8–14.8 0.35 (95% CI 0.32–0.57) 39/11,103

*CFR, case-fatality ratio; COVID-19, coronavirus disease; CrI, credibility interval.

Main Article

Page created: May 18, 2020
Page updated: May 18, 2020
Page reviewed: May 18, 2020
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.