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Volume 26, Number 9—September 2020
Dispatch

Assessing 3 Outbreak Detection Algorithms in an Electronic Syndromic Surveillance System in a Resource-Limited Setting

Emily Alsentzer1, Sarah-Blythe Ballard1Comments to Author , Joan Neyra, Delphis M. Vera, Victor B. Osorio, Jose Quispe, David L. Blazes, and Luis Loayza
Author affiliations: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA (E. Alsentzer); Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA (E. Alsentzer, S.B. Ballard, D.L. Blazes); Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA (S.-B. Ballard); Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Callao, Peru (S.B. Ballard, D.M. Vera, V.B. Osorio, J. Quispe); Marina de Guerra del Perú, Callao (L. Loayza)

Main Article

Table

Nonbloody acute diarrheal disease case count and incidence, 2007–2011, and true outbreak detection data and algorithm performance, 2009–2011 for the 45 naval surveillance sites in Peru, analyzed by using X-bar chart, exponentially weighted moving average, and Early Aberration Reporting System C3 cumulative sums models*

Surveillance site Total cases, 2007–2011 Average cases/week/1,000 population, 2007–2011 Date of true outbreak detection, case count, incidence, 2009–2011 Average outbreak detection algorithm performance, 2009–2011
BAP Aguirre
 393
 13.45
 2009 Jan 24, 25 cases, 109/1,000 population
 Sensitivity 100%, specificity 97.4%, PPV 20.0%
BAP Bolognesi 334 11.04 ‡ ‡
BAP Carvajal 581 14.56 ‡ ‡
BAP Eten 129 27.95 ‡ ‡
BAP Grau 887 9.04 ‡ ‡
BAP Mariátegui 490 16.64 ‡ ‡
BAP Montero 321 12.39 ‡ ‡
BAP Paita 185 † ‡ ‡
BAP Palacios 1,118 27.16 ‡ ‡
BAP Pisagua 224 55.04
BAP Pisco 283 †
BAP Quiñones 289 9.17
BAP Sánchez Carrión
 156
 39.90
 ‡
 ‡
BAP Velarde
 114
 36.54
 2011 Sep 5, 12 cases, 250 cases/1,000 population
 Sensitivity 100%, specificity 100%, PPV 100%
BAP Villavicencio 251 9.20 ‡ ‡
Base Aeronaval 991 4.19 ‡ ‡
Base Naval Chimbote 349 4.90 ‡ ‡
Base Naval Nanay 596 4.54 ‡ ‡
Base Naval San Juan 313 25.74 ‡ ‡
BCT Aguaytia 214 39.81 ‡ ‡
BCT Contamana 261 †
BCT Huipoca 154 46.81 ‡ ‡
BCT San Alejandro 118 26.22 ‡ ‡
Capitanía Puerto Mollendo 171 19.52 ‡ ‡
Capitanía Puerto Puno 246 26.74 ‡ ‡
Centro Instrucción Técnica Naval 829 3.48 ‡ ‡
Clínica Naval de Iquitos 3,269 1.84 ‡ ‡
Comandancia Primera Zona Naval
 244
 21.02
 ‡
 ‡
Comandancia Tercera Zona Naval
 625
 21.48
 2010 Aug 14, 31 cases, 207 cases/1,000 population
 Sensitivity 100%, specificity 99.4%, PPV, 50.0%
Dirección de Capitanías y Guardacostas 293 5.77 ‡ ‡
Dirección de Hidrografía y Navegación 385 8.09 ‡ ‡
Escuela Naval 988 4.84 ‡ ‡
Estación Naval Isla San Lorenzo 449 24.34 ‡ ‡
Estación Naval Mollendo 343 6.42 ‡ ‡
Estación Naval Paita 796 8.93 ‡ ‡
Estación Naval Pucallpa
 2,098
 15.22
 ‡
 ‡
Estación Naval Submarinos
 734
 16.33
 2010 Feb 8, 21 cases, 100 cases/1,000 population
 Sensitivity 100%, specificity 99.1%, PPV 42.9%
Estación Naval de la Comandancia General 1,260 † ‡ ‡
Hospital Base Naval del Callao
 4,132
 1.62
 ‡
 ‡
Policlínico Naval Ancón
 2,019
 5.24
 2010 Feb 11, 33 cases
18 cases/1,000 population; 2010 Feb 20, 22 cases, 12 cases/1,000 population
 Sensitivity 100%, specificity 98.1%, PPV 40.0%
Policlínico Naval San Borja 2,892 134.51 ‡ ‡
Posta Naval de Ventanilla 1,110 113.15 ‡ ‡
Villa Naval de Tumbes–El Salto 710 † ‡ ‡

*BAP, Buque de la Armada Peruana (Peru Navy ship); BCT, Base Contraterrorist (Counter-terrorist base); PPV, positive predictive value.
†No denominator data available.
‡True outbreak data not available because of lack of on-site capability to establish epidemiologic link.

Main Article

1These first authors were co–principal investigators and contributed equally to this article.

Page created: July 14, 2020
Page updated: August 19, 2020
Page reviewed: August 19, 2020
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