Skip directly to site content Skip directly to page options Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link
Volume 27, Number 11—November 2021
Synopsis

Policy Review and Modeling Analysis of Mitigation Measures for Coronavirus Disease Epidemic Control, Health System, and Disease Burden, South Korea

Hae-Young Kim, In-Hwan Oh, Jacob Lee, Jeong-Yeon Seon, Woo-Hwi Jeon, Jae Seok Park, Sung-Il Nam, Niket Thakkar, Prashanth Selvaraj, Jessica McGillen, Daniel Klein, Scott Braithwaite, Anna Bershteyn, and Seung Heon LeeComments to Author 
Author affiliations: New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA (H.-Y. Kim, J. McGillen, S. Braithwaite, A. Bershteyn); Kyung Hee University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea (I.-H. Oh, J.-Y. Seon, W.-H. Jeon); Hallym University Kangnam Hospital, Seoul (J. Lee); Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu, South Korea (J.S. Park, S.-I. Nam); Institute of Disease Modeling, Seattle, Washington, USA (N. Thakkar, P. Selvaraj, D. Klein); Korea University Ansan Hospital, Ansan, South Korea (S.H. Lee)

Main Article

Table 2

Input parameters for COVID-19 transmission compartmental model, South Korea*

Characteristic Baseline value Range† Reference
Hospitalizations for all confirmed cases by disease severity before March 2, % 49.4 (5)
Asymptomatic or mild symptomatic cases 17.0 (5)
Mild symptomatic cases 22.4 (5)
Severely ill cases 6.4 (5)
Critically ill cases
 3.6
(5)
Hospitalizations for all confirmed cases by disease severity after March 2, % 82.6 (5,9)
Asymptomatic or mild symptomatic cases (admitted to CTCs) 38.2 (5,9)
Asymptomatic or mild symptomatic cases (admitted to hospitals) 12.0 (5,9)
Mild symptomatic cases 22.4 (5,9)
Severe symptomatic cases 6.4 (5,9)
Critically ill cases
 3.6
(5,9)
Proportion admitted to the ICU among hospitalized patients
 8.1
(5,9)
Time to outcome, d
Time to symptom onsets 5.1 4.5‒5.8 (11)
Time from symptom onset to hospitalization 4.0 0‒11 (12‒14)
Time from symptom onset to ICU hospitalization 7.0 6‒8 (12‒14)
Time from symptom onset to death 17.0 0‒27 (14)
Length of stay at CTC 16.0 7‒20 (9,18)
Length of stays at hospital without ICU admission 20.9 7.2‒34.6 (15‒17)
ICU length of stay among survivors 30.0 11.6‒47.2 (5,15,16)
ICU length of stay among nonsurvivors
 10.0
 0 ‒13
 (5,15,16)
Case-fatality rate for critically ill patients, % 60.0 (5,9)

*COVID-19, coronavirus disease; CTC, community treatment center; ICU, intensive care unit. †Range was used for sensitivity analysis where available. For parameters that were calculated as proportions, baseline values were used as fixed values.

Main Article

References
  1. World Health Organization. WHO coronavirus disease (COVID-19) dashboard, 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 12]. https://covid19.who.int
  2. Flaxman  S, Mishra  S, Gandy  A, Unwin  HJT, Mellan  TA, Coupland  H, et al.; Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature. 2020;584:257–61. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  3. Hsiang  S, Allen  D, Annan-Phan  S, Bell  K, Bolliger  I, Chong  T, et al. The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature. 2020;584:262–7. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  4. Wise  J. Covid-19: Risk of second wave is very real, say researchers. BMJ. 2020;369:m2294. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  5. Daegu Disaster Management Headquarters. COVID-19 daily briefing in Daegu metropolitan City, 2020 [cited 2020 Jun 30]. https://www.daegu.go.kr/dgcontent/index.do?menu_id=00936590
  6. Korea Central Emergency Medical Central. Comprehensive situation dashboard in National Emergency Department Information System 2020, 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 12]. http://portal.nemc.or.kr/medi_info/dashboards/dash_total_emer_org_popup_for_egen.do
  7. Song  JY, Yun  JG, Noh  JY, Cheong  HJ, Kim  WJ. COVID-19 in South Korea: challenges of subclinical manifestations. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:1858–9. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  8. World Health Organization. COVID19 strategic preparedness and response plan: operational planning guidelines to support country preparedness and response, 2020 [cited 2021 Jul 26]. https://www.who.int /publications/m/item/covid-19-strategic-preparedness -and-response-plan-operational-planning-guideline
  9. Central Department of Mental Health. Cases in Korea by city/province, 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 12]. http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/en/bdBoardList.do?brdId=16&brdGubun=162&dataGubun=&ncvContSeq=&contSeq=&board_id=&gubun=
  10. Thakkar  N, Klein  D, Selvaraj  P, Famulare  M. COVID in New York City: a model-based perspective, 2020 [cited 2021 Jun 26]. https://iazpvnewgrp01.blob.core.windows.net/source/archived/COVID_Modeling_NYC.pdf
  11. Lauer  SA, Grantz  KH, Bi  Q, Jones  FK, Zheng  Q, Meredith  HR, et al. The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application. Ann Intern Med. 2020;172:577–82. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  12. Kim  ES, Chin  BS, Kang  CK, Kim  NJ, Kang  YM, Choi  JP, et al.; Korea National Committee for Clinical Management of COVID-19. Clinical course and outcomes of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection: a preliminary report of the first 28 patients from the Korean cohort study on COVID-19. J Korean Med Sci. 2020;35:e142. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  13. Kim  M, Kweon  S, Lee  JH, Baek  S, Jeon  B-H, Joo  H, et al. Weekly report on the COVID-19 situation in the Republic of Korea (as of March 28, 2020). Public Health Wkly Rep. 2020;13:800–6.
  14. COVID-19 National Emergency Response Center, Epidemiology and Case Management Team, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Coronavirus disease-19: the first 7,755 cases in the Republic of Korea. Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2020;11:85–90. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  15. Jang  SY, Seon  JY, Yoon  S-J, Park  S-Y, Lee  S-H, Oh  I-H. Comorbidities and factors determining medical expenses and length of stay for admitted COVID-19 patients in Korea. Risk Manag Healthc Policy. 2021;14:2021–33. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  16. Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. Facility and equipment status. Healthcare Bigdata Hub, 2020 [cited 2020 Jun 3]. http://opendata.hira.or.kr/op/opc/olapInfraEquipmentStatInfo.do#none
  17. Choi  MH, Ahn  H, Ryu  HS, Kim  BJ, Jang  J, Jung  M, et al. Clinical characteristics and disease progression in early-stage COVID-19 patients in South Korea. J Clin Med. 2020;9:E1959. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  18. Kang  E, Lee  SY, Jung  H, Kim  MS, Cho  B, Kim  YS. Operating protocols of a community treatment center for isolation of patients with coronavirus disease, South Korea. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26:2329–37. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  19. Liang  M, Gao  L, Cheng  C, Zhou  Q, Uy  JP, Heiner  K, et al. Efficacy of face mask in preventing respiratory virus transmission: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Travel Med Infect Dis. 2020;36:101751. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  20. Chu  DK, Akl  EA, Duda  S, Solo  K, Yaacoub  S, Schünemann  HJ, et al.; COVID-19 Systematic Urgent Review Group Effort (SURGE) study authors. Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet. 2020;395:1973–87. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  21. Korean Society of Infectious Diseases; Korean Society of Pediatric Infectious Diseases. Korean Society of Epidemiology; Korean Society for Antimicrobial Therapy; Korean Society for Healthcare-Associated Infection Control and Prevention; Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Report on the epidemiological features of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Republic of Korea from January 19 to March 2, 2020. J Korean Med Sci. 2020;35:e112.
  22. Park  SY, Kim  YM, Yi  S, Lee  S, Na  BJ, Kim  CB, et al. Coronavirus disease outbreak in call center, South Korea. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26:1666–70. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  23. COVID-19 National Emergency Response Center. Epidemiology & Case Management Team, Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention. Contact transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea: novel investigation techniques for tracing contacts. Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2020;11:60–3. DOIGoogle Scholar
  24. Park  YJ, Choe  YJ, Park  O, Park  SY, Kim  YM, Kim  J, et al.; COVID-19 National Emergency Response Center, Epidemiology and Case Management Team. Contact tracing during coronavirus disease outbreak, South Korea, 2020. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26:2465–8. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  25. Ministry of Health and Welfare. Republic of Korea. COVID-19 response: Korean government’s response system (as of February 25, 2020), 2020 [cited 2021 Apr 15]. http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/en/baroView.do?brdId=11&brdGubun=111&dataGubun=&ncvContSeq=&contSeq=&board_id=&gubun=
  26. Government of the Republic of Korea. Ministry of Foreign Affairs. All about Korea's response to COVID-19, 2020 [cited 2021 Jul 26]. https://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_22591/view.do?seq=35&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp=&multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2=0&company_cd=&company_nm=&page=1&titleNm=
  27. Kim  YJ, Sung  H, Ki  CS, Hur  M. COVID-19 testing in South Korea: current status and the need for faster diagnostics. Ann Lab Med. 2020;40:349–50. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  28. Fulop  T, Pawelec  G, Castle  S, Loeb  M. Immunosenescence and vaccination in nursing home residents. Clin Infect Dis. 2009;48:443–8. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  29. Strausbaugh  LJ, Sukumar  SR, Joseph  CL. Infectious disease outbreaks in nursing homes: an unappreciated hazard for frail elderly persons. Clin Infect Dis. 2003;36:870–6. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  30. Korea Center for Disease Control. Coronavirus disease-19, Republic of Korea: enhanced social distancing campaign, 2020 [cited 2021 Apr 15]. https://ncov.mohw.go.kr/en/infoBoardView.do?brdId=14&brdGubun=141&dataGubun=&ncvContSeq=1551&contSeq=1551&board_id=&gubun=
  31. Park  IN, Yum  HK. Stepwise strategy of social distancing in Korea. J Korean Med Sci. 2020;35:e264. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  32. Lim  S, Yoon  HI, Song  KH, Kim  ES, Kim  HB. Face masks and containment of COVID-19: experience from South Korea. J Hosp Infect. 2020;106:206–7. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  33. Lee  M, You  M. Psychological and behavioral responses in South Korea during the early tages of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020;17:E2977. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  34. Gallup International Association. Coronavirus 19 prevention behavior and related perceptions, 2020 [cited 2021 Jul 26]. https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/308126/roundup-gallup-covid-coverage.aspx
  35. Kim  SW, Lee  KS, Kim  K, Lee  JJ, Kim  JY; Daegu Medical Association. A brief telephone severity scoring system and therapeutic living centers solved acute hospital-bed shortage during the COVID-19 outbreak in Daegu, Korea. J Korean Med Sci. 2020;35:e152. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  36. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). OECD Health Statistics 2019, 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 12]. https://www.oecd.org/health/health-data.htm
  37. Lee  SY, Choi  SH, Park  JE, Hwang  S, Kwon  KT. Crucial role of temporary airborne infection isolation rooms in an intensive care unit: containing the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea. Crit Care. 2020;24:238. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  38. Lee  Y, Lim  J. Korean Goverment says, “Transferring critially ill patients with COVID-19 to dedicated non-ICU beds as their conditions improve... especially to a single-occupancy room” [in Korean]. Newsis. 2020 Dec 15 [cited 2021 Jun 28]. https://www.newsis.com/view/?id=NISX20201215_0001270622
  39. Kang  CR, Lee  JY, Park  Y, Huh  IS, Ham  HJ, Han  JK, et al.; Seoul Metropolitan Government COVID-19 Rapid Response Team (SCoRR Team). (SCoRR Team). Coronavirus disease exposure and spread from nightclubs, South Korea. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26:2499–501. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  40. US Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Interim guidance on developing a COVID-19 case investigation & contact tracing plan: overview, 2020 [cited 2020 Jun 5]. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/contact-tracing/contact-tracing-plan/overview.html

Main Article

Page created: July 27, 2021
Page updated: October 19, 2021
Page reviewed: October 19, 2021
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
file_external