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Volume 27, Number 11—November 2021

Policy Review and Modeling Analysis of Mitigation Measures for Coronavirus Disease Epidemic Control, Health System, and Disease Burden, South Korea

Hae-Young Kim, In-Hwan Oh, Jacob Lee, Jeong-Yeon Seon, Woo-Hwi Jeon, Jae Seok Park, Sung-Il Nam, Niket Thakkar, Prashanth Selvaraj, Jessica McGillen, Daniel Klein, Scott Braithwaite, Anna Bershteyn, and Seung Heon LeeComments to Author 
Author affiliations: New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA (H.-Y. Kim, J. McGillen, S. Braithwaite, A. Bershteyn); Kyung Hee University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea (I.-H. Oh, J.-Y. Seon, W.-H. Jeon); Hallym University Kangnam Hospital, Seoul (J. Lee); Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu, South Korea (J.S. Park, S.-I. Nam); Institute of Disease Modeling, Seattle, Washington, USA (N. Thakkar, P. Selvaraj, D. Klein); Korea University Ansan Hospital, Ansan, South Korea (S.H. Lee)

Main Article

Table 2

Input parameters for COVID-19 transmission compartmental model, South Korea*

Characteristic Baseline value Range† Reference
Hospitalizations for all confirmed cases by disease severity before March 2, % 49.4 (5)
Asymptomatic or mild symptomatic cases 17.0 (5)
Mild symptomatic cases 22.4 (5)
Severely ill cases 6.4 (5)
Critically ill cases

Hospitalizations for all confirmed cases by disease severity after March 2, % 82.6 (5,9)
Asymptomatic or mild symptomatic cases (admitted to CTCs) 38.2 (5,9)
Asymptomatic or mild symptomatic cases (admitted to hospitals) 12.0 (5,9)
Mild symptomatic cases 22.4 (5,9)
Severe symptomatic cases 6.4 (5,9)
Critically ill cases

Proportion admitted to the ICU among hospitalized patients

Time to outcome, d
Time to symptom onsets 5.1 4.5‒5.8 (11)
Time from symptom onset to hospitalization 4.0 0‒11 (1214)
Time from symptom onset to ICU hospitalization 7.0 6‒8 (1214)
Time from symptom onset to death 17.0 0‒27 (14)
Length of stay at CTC 16.0 7‒20 (9,18)
Length of stays at hospital without ICU admission 20.9 7.2‒34.6 (1517)
ICU length of stay among survivors 30.0 11.6‒47.2 (5,15,16)
ICU length of stay among nonsurvivors
0 ‒13
Case-fatality rate for critically ill patients, % 60.0 (5,9)

*COVID-19, coronavirus disease; CTC, community treatment center; ICU, intensive care unit. †Range was used for sensitivity analysis where available. For parameters that were calculated as proportions, baseline values were used as fixed values.

Main Article

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