Early Estimates of Monkeypox Incubation Period, Generation Time, and Reproduction Number, Italy, May–June 2022
Giorgio Guzzetta, Alessia Mammone, Federica Ferraro, Anna Caraglia, Alessia Rapiti, Valentina Marziano, Piero Poletti, Danilo Cereda, Francesco Vairo, Giovanna Mattei, Francesco Maraglino, Giovanni Rezza1
, and Stefano Merler1
Author affiliations: Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy (G. Guzzetta, V. Marziano, P. Poletti, S. Merler); Directorate General of Health Prevention, Ministry of Health, Rome, Italy (A. Mammone, F. Ferraro, A. Caraglia, A. Rapiti, F. Maraglino, G. Rezza); Directorate General for Health, Lombardy Region, Milano, Italy (D. Cereda); National Institute of Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani, Rome (F. Vairo); General Directorate for Personal Care, Health and Welfare, Emilia Romagna Region, Bologna, Italy (G. Mattei)
Figure. Epidemic curve and reproduction number of monkeypox cases in Italy through July 8, 2022. A) Number of cases by date of symptom onset and history of travel in Canary Islands. For 4 persons, the date of symptom onset was unknown. B) Estimate of the net reproduction number over time from the epidemic curve by date of symptom onset. We assumed that all cases with a history of travel to Canary Islands were imported and that all the others were locally transmitted, and we used a generation time distribution with mean 12.5 days. Gray shading indicates the part of the epidemic curve that is possibly incomplete because of diagnostic and reporting delays.
Page created: August 11, 2022
Page updated: September 21, 2022
Page reviewed: September 21, 2022
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