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Volume 28, Number 3—March 2022
Research

Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Syndromic Healthcare Data, Sweden, 2020

Armin SprecoComments to Author , Anna Jöud, Olle Eriksson, Kristian Soltesz, Reidar Källström, Örjan Dahlström, Henrik Eriksson, Joakim Ekberg, Carl-Oscar Jonson, Carl-Johan Fraenkel, Torbjörn Lundh, Philip Gerlee, Fredrik Gustafsson, and Toomas Timpka
Author affiliations: Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden (A. Spreco, O. Eriksson, R. Källström, Ö. Dahlström, H. Eriksson J. Ekberg, C.-O. Jonson, F. Gustafsson, T. Timpka); Region Östergötland, Linköping (A. Spreco, R. Källström, J. Ekberg, C.-O. Jonson, T. Timpka); Lund University, Lund, Sweden (A. Jöud, K. Soltesz); Skåne University Hospital, Lund (A. Jöud. C.-J. Fraenkel); Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden (T. Lundh, P. Gerlee); Gothenburg University, Gothenburg (T. Lundh, P. Gerlee)

Main Article

Table

Weekly nowcasting performance for 2 syndromic variables in the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, Östergötland County, Sweden, 2020*

Nowcasting dates Hospitalizations/day/100,000 population Cough by adult
 Fever by adult
rFND MAPE rFND MAPE
Week 1 (Mar 22–28) 1.8–3.4 0.86–0.97 9 –28 0.01–0.99 14–20
Week 2 (Mar 29–Apr 4) 3.4–4.9 0.93–0.98 3–5 −0.63 to −0.32 17–47
Week 3 (Apr 5–11)† 3.2–4.5 0.89–0.95 4–6 −0.20 to 0.79 39–52
Week 4 (Apr 12–18) 2.6–3.2 0.92–0.97 4–6 0.87–0.95 16–45
Week 5 (Apr 19–25) 2.1–2.6 0.74–0.94 6–9 0.70–0.93 15–21
Week 6 (Apr 26–May 2) 1.4–2.1 0.46–0.73 10–13 0.58–0.73 9–13
Week 7 (May 3–9) 1.4–1.6 0.64–0.91 7–13 0.65–0.82 8–11
Week 8 (May 10–16) 1.1–1.5 0.53–0.74 8–17 0.45–0.65 9–11
Week 9 (May 17–23) 0.9–1.1 −0.28 to 0.57 19–41 −0.08 to 0.44 9–14
Week 10 (May 24–30) 0.9–1.1 −0.87 to −0.46 38–47 −0.57 to −0.16 14–18
Week 11 (May 31–Jun 6) 0.8–1.1 −0.86 to −0.26 19–32 −0.90 to 0.63 17–28
Week 12 (Jun 7–13) 0.8–1.0 −0.03 to 0.48 29–55 0.74–0.78 21–34
Week 13 (Jun 14–20) 0.6–1.0 −0.41 to 0.36 17–48 −0.53 to 0.60 12–32
Week 14 (Jun 21–27) 0.5–0.7 −0.20 to 0.58 15–28 0.13–0.78 10–23
Week 15 (Jun 28–30)‡ 0.6–0.7 0.42 to 0.50 24 to 25 0.66 to 0.70 20–22

*MAPE, mean absolute percentage error; rFND, Pearson correlation coefficient between the telenursing and hospitalization data from the nowcasting date through the period covered by the time lag. †Includes local peak of the first pandemic wave. ‡Only 3 days because it is the end of the study period.

Main Article

Page created: January 11, 2022
Page updated: February 21, 2022
Page reviewed: February 21, 2022
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