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Volume 29, Number 11—November 2023
Research

Simulation Study of Surveillance Strategies for Faster Detection of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants

Selina PatelComments to Author , Fergus Cumming, Carl Mayers, André Charlett1, and Steven Riley1
Author affiliations: University College London, London, UK (S. Patel); UK Health Security Agency, London (S. Patel, F. Cumming, C. Mayers, A. Charlett, S. Riley); Imperial College London, London (S. Riley)

Main Article

Table 3

Simulated time to detect a novel variant since index case through community testing in study of traveler testing for surveillance of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants

Community testing cohort size (% destination country population)
 Time to detection (days since emergence of index case), summaries from 1,000 simulations
5th percentile
 25th percentile
 Median
 75th percentile
 95th percentile
20,000 (0.04) 145 165 175 183 191
30,000 (0.05) 144 161 170 178 187
40,000 (0.07) 140 158 168 176 185
50,000 (0.09) 138.5 156 166 175 184
60,000 (0.11) 137 155.5 165 172 182
70,000 (0.13) 137 154 163 171 181
80,000 (0.14) 136 153 162 170 179
90,000 (0.16) 133 151 161 169 177
100,000 (0.18) 133.5 150.5 160 168 178
110,000 (0.20) 130 150 159 167 176
120,000 (0.21) 130 148 158 166.5 176
130,000 (0.23) 130.5 149 158 165 174
140,000 (0.25) 129 148 157 164 173
150,000 (0.27) 129 146 156 163 172
160,000 (0.29) 127.5 146 155.5 163 172
170,000 (0.30) 127 146 155 164 173
180.000 (0.32) 126 145 154 162 171
190,000 (0.34) 128 145 154 162 173
200,000 (0.36) 127 144.5 154 162 171

Main Article

1These senior authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: September 29, 2023
Page updated: October 23, 2023
Page reviewed: October 23, 2023
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