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Volume 30, Number 9—September 2024
Research Letter

Optimizing Disease Outbreak Forecast Ensembles

Spencer J. FoxComments to Author , Minsu Kim, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Nicholas G. Reich, and Evan L. Ray
Author affiliations: University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA (S.J. Fox); University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA (M. Kim, N.G. Reich, E.L. Ray); University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA (L.A. Meyers); Dell Medical School, Austin (L.A. Meyers); Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (L.A. Meyers)

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Figure 1

Comparison between individual and ensemble forecasts for COVID-19 mortality for Massachusetts, USA, from 1–4 weeks ahead, November 15, 2021–December 3, 2022, in study of optimizing disease outbreak forecasting ensembles. A) Individual forecasts of 10 models meeting inclusion criteria compared with weekly COVID-19 mortality estimates. B) An ensemble forecast constructed by taking the median across 10 individual forecasts compared with weekly COVID-19 mortality estimates. Black dots, weekly COVID-19 mortality estimates; colored lines, medians; ribbons, 95% prediction intervals.

Figure 1. Comparison between individual and ensemble forecasts for COVID-19 mortality for Massachusetts, USA, from 1–4 weeks ahead, November 15, 2021–December 3, 2022, in study of optimizing disease outbreak forecasting ensembles. A) Individual forecasts of 10 models meeting inclusion criteria compared with weekly COVID-19 mortality estimates. B) An ensemble forecast constructed by taking the median across 10 individual forecasts compared with weekly COVID-19 mortality estimates. Black dots, weekly COVID-19 mortality estimates; colored lines, medians; ribbons, 95% prediction intervals.

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Page created: August 01, 2024
Page updated: August 21, 2024
Page reviewed: August 21, 2024
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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