Shifting Dynamics of Dengue Virus Serotype 2 and Emergence of Cosmopolitan Genotype, Costa Rica, 2024
Mauricio González-Elizondo, Dihala Picado Soto, Estela Cordero Laurent, Francisco Duarte Martínez, Luiz Carlos Junior Alcantara, Vagner Fonseca, Jairo Andrés Méndez Rico, Jose Lourenco, Leticia Franco, Marta Giovanetti
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, and Claudio Soto Garita
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Author affiliation: Centro Nacional de Referencia de Virología, Tres Ríos, Costa Rica (M. González-Elizondo, D. Picado Soto, E. Cordero Laurent, F. Duarte Martínez, C. Soto Garita); René Rachou Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil (L.C.J. Alcantara); Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais Instituto de Ciencias Biologicas, Belo Horizonte, Brazil (L.C.J. Alcantara); University of the State of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil (V. Fonseca); Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (V. Fonseca); Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA (J.A. Méndez Rico, L. Franco); Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Católica Medical School, Católica Biomedical Research Centre, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenco); Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, Italy (M. Giovanetti); Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Minas Gerais, Brazil (M. Giovanetti)
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Figure 1
Figure 1. Temporal and spatial correlation between climate-driven suitability and dengue incidence from a study of shifting dynamics of dengue virus serotype 2 and emergence of cosmopolitan genotype, Costa Rica, 2024. A) Time series of monthly dengue cases and climate-driven suitability index for transmission during June 2014–November 2024. Shaded area (yellow) indicates the epidemic period during which enough cases with a clear seasonal signal were reported to enable an estimate correlation between suitability and incidence (Spearman r = 0.38; p<0.05). Scale bars for the y-axes differ substantially to underscore patterns. B, C) Province-level Spearman correlation values between monthly dengue incidence and climate suitability during 2022 (B) and 2023 (C). Warmer colors indicate stronger correlations. White dashed boundaries mark provinces with nonsignificant correlation (p>0.05) and solid dark gray boundaries indicate provinces with statistically significant correlation. In 2023, higher correlations were observed in eastern and coastal provinces where early cases of the dengue virus serotype 2 cosmopolitan genotype were detected.
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