Figure 2. Relative effects of variables in a Zaire ebolavirus–only predictive model for estimating annual Ebolavirus spillover potential. A) Overall variable effects for predicting Ebolavirus spillover likelihood; B) marginal response curves of the relationship between spillover likelihood and each covariate for the top 12 predictors across ensembles of 100 models. Boxes indicate interquartile ranges, horizontal lines within boxes indicate medians, whiskers indicate range values. We measured forest loss in individual covariates for the same year, 1 year prior, and 2 years before spillover events. Mean values for percentage of forest cover, forest loss, forest fragmentation, and human population were extracted surrounding each spillover location using mutually exclusive circular donut buffers with maximum radii of 10, 25, 50, 100, and 150 km.